* Oil demand this year to fall by 9.06 million bpd
* Maintains 2021 oil demand view but sees large
uncertainties
* OPEC pumps extra 980,000 bpd in July, compliance slips to
97%
* Cuts forecast demand for OPEC crude in 2020, 2021
(Adds further details, context)
By Alex Lawler
LONDON, Aug 12 (Reuters) - World oil demand will fall more
steeply in 2020 than previously forecast due to the coronavirus
and there are doubts about next year's recovery, OPEC forecast
on Wednesday, potentially making it harder for the group and its
allies to support the market.
World oil demand will tumble by 9.06 million barrels per day
(bpd) this year, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries said in a monthly report, more than the 8.95 million
bpd decline expected a month ago.
Oil prices have collapsed as the coronavirus curtailed
travel and economic activity. While some countries have eased
lockdowns, allowing demand to recover, fear of new outbreaks has
kept a lid on prices and OPEC expects this to persist.
"Crude and product price developments in the second half of
2020 will continue to be impacted by concerns over a second wave
of infections and higher global stocks," OPEC said in the
report.
OPEC stuck to its forecast that in 2021 oil demand would
rebound by 7 million bpd but said the outlook was subject to
large uncertainties that might result in "a negative impact on
petroleum consumption", such as demand for air travel, more
fuel-efficient cars and more competition from other fuels.
"Almost all forecasters expect jet fuel in 2021 to struggle
making up for lost demand," OPEC said. "Gasoline demand will
face pressure to return to 2019 levels."
Oil stocks have built up due to the demand collapse. OPEC
said inventories in developed nations rose in June to stand
291.2 million barrels above the five-year average, a yardstick
that OPEC before the pandemic saw as a desirable level.
Crude LCOc1 rose above $45 a barrel on Wednesday, but
remains below levels that many OPEC members need to balance
their budgets.
OPEC OUTPUT RISES
To tackle the drop in demand, OPEC and its allies, known as
OPEC+, agreed to a record supply cut of 9.7 million bpd that
started on May 1, while the United States and other nations said
they would pump less.
In the report, OPEC said its output rose by 980,000 bpd to
23.17 million bpd in July, largely because Saudi Arabia and
other Gulf members ended extra voluntary cuts they had made in
June.
That amounted to 97% compliance with the pledges, according
to a Reuters calculation - lower than June's figure of well
above 100%.
OPEC is set to boost output further this month as the 9.7
million bpd cut tapers to a reduction of 7.7 million bpd from
Aug. 1. A monitoring panel of OPEC+ ministers meets next Tuesday
to discuss the market, and so far there is no suggestion of
tweaking the agreement.
The report also forecast that demand for OPEC crude will be
lower than expected this year and next, as supply increases from
outside the group and because of the reduced demand outlook for
2020.
OPEC said demand for its crude this year will average 23.4
million bpd, down 400,000 bpd from the previous forecast. That
suggests the market could move into surplus should OPEC's output
rise in August, as called for by the OPEC+ agreement.
(Editing by Jason Neely, Susan Fenton and Mark Heinrich)