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Introduction & Market Context
Advanced Flower Capital Inc. (NASDAQ:AFCG), the first Nasdaq-listed commercial mortgage REIT focused on cannabis operators, presented its first quarter 2025 investor presentation on May 14, 2025. The company operates in an expanding cannabis market that faces both significant growth opportunities and capital constraints.
The presentation comes after a challenging fourth quarter of 2024, when the company missed both EPS and revenue forecasts, leading to a significant stock price decline. Current trading data shows AFCG at $5.77, up 2.12% in the most recent session, but still near its 52-week low of $4.34.
Q1 2025 Financial Performance
AFCG reported a significant improvement in net income for Q1 2025, posting $4.07 million ($0.18 per share) compared to a loss of $54,116 ($0.01 per share) in Q1 2024. However, distributable earnings declined substantially year-over-year to $4.54 million ($0.21 per share) from $9.97 million ($0.49 per share) in the same period last year.
The company’s consolidated balance sheet shows total assets of $321.7 million as of March 31, 2025, down from $402.1 million at the end of 2024. Total (EPA:TTEF) liabilities also decreased to $120.9 million from $200.7 million over the same period.
As shown in the following financial statements, interest income decreased significantly year-over-year:
The reconciliation between GAAP net income and distributable earnings highlights the substantial decline in distributable earnings despite improved net income:
Portfolio and Investment Strategy
AFCG maintains a diversified loan portfolio with 18 funded deals across 16 states. The company targets an average portfolio gross yield of 12-20%, with current weighted average yield-to-maturity of approximately 18%. The portfolio is diversified across operators, geographies, and asset types.
The company’s key metrics demonstrate its market position and investment approach:
AFCG emphasizes its disciplined and selective investment process, having reviewed 891 deals representing approximately $21 billion since inception, with only 3.9% of deals making it through their screening process. This selectivity is illustrated in their origination pipeline:
The company’s portfolio summary shows the diversity of investments and their respective yields:
Cannabis Market Outlook
AFCG’s presentation highlights significant growth potential in the U.S. cannabis market, projecting it to reach $63 billion by 2030, with a total economic impact surpassing $200 billion. The market is expected to grow at a 12% CAGR, outpacing comparable product categories like beer, tobacco, spirits, and wine.
The following chart illustrates the projected market growth:
The company also notes the rapid adoption of state legalization, with 42 states and DC having legalized medical cannabis and 24 states and DC having legalized adult-use cannabis. This expansion creates significant capital demand in newly legalizing states:
Valuation and Competitive Positioning
AFCG positions itself in a market with few institutional capital providers and high barriers to entry. The company highlights that cannabis lending offers superior returns compared to traditional leveraged finance, with its weighted average yield-to-maturity of approximately 18% significantly exceeding U.S. leveraged loan and high yield indices.
The presentation emphasizes that AFCG’s current valuation presents an attractive entry point, trading at 0.6x book value with a 17% dividend yield, compared to peers trading at higher multiples with lower yields:
The competitive landscape shows few specialized lenders in the cannabis space:
Forward-Looking Statements
Looking ahead, AFCG expects an increase in M&A activity in 2025 due to industry fragmentation and the emergence of new players with clean capital stacks. The company anticipates that additional medical and adult-use transitions in states like Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Ohio will drive client ambitions and capital demand.
The company maintains a strong pipeline of $287 million in potential deals and continues to focus on lending to established cannabis operators amid a challenging market environment. However, investors should note the significant discrepancy between the company’s optimistic outlook and recent financial performance, particularly the substantial decline in distributable earnings year-over-year.
Despite these challenges, AFCG’s management emphasizes its cycle-tested leadership team and experience in structuring over $15 billion in loan transactions as key advantages in navigating the evolving cannabis market.
Full presentation:
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