Analyst retains TD Bank's sector outperform on AML issues resolution

Published 14/10/2024, 16:12
Analyst retains TD Bank's sector outperform on AML issues resolution

On Monday, Scotiabank reaffirmed its Sector Outperform rating on shares of Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD:CN) (NYSE: TD), maintaining a price target of Cdn$86.00. The endorsement follows the resolution of TD's AML issues in the United States, which had cast a shadow of uncertainty over the bank since the collapse of the First Horizon (NYSE:FHN) acquisition in May 2023.

The analyst from Scotiabank noted that the market had anticipated a possible formal asset cap on TD, but their analysis suggested investors were expecting a worse outcome, one that would significantly impact the bank's earnings. However, the recent disclosures from TD indicate that such a drastic earnings deterioration is unlikely. The analyst's revised forecast only slightly lowers the bank's fiscal 2025 earnings per share (EPS) estimate from $8.11 to $8.06.

The resolution of these compliance concerns is seen as lifting a major overhang from TD Bank's stock, which should foster improved investor sentiment. The analyst's comments reflect a belief that the market had overestimated the potential negative impact of the unresolved AML issues on TD's valuation and earnings.

In light of the recent developments, the Scotiabank analyst also mentioned that they would introduce their fiscal 2026 estimates in their upcoming Q4 bank preview. There is an expectation that the earnings for TD's US Retail segment could see an increase in fiscal 2026 compared to fiscal 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the bank's performance in the United States following the resolution of its AML issues.

Toronto-Dominion Bank's stock continues to be monitored by investors as the bank navigates the aftermath of its regulatory challenges and positions itself for future growth in the North American market. The maintained Sector Outperform rating and price target suggest confidence in TD's ability to overcome recent hurdles and capitalize on its market position.

In other recent news, Toronto-Dominion Bank has faced a series of significant developments. The bank has reached a global resolution with U.S. regulatory bodies, including a financial penalty of $3.09 billion, due to investigations into the bank's Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) compliance programs.

BMO Capital maintained a Market Perform rating on the bank's stock, while RBC Capital Markets downgraded Toronto-Dominion Bank's stock from Outperform to Sector Perform due to these regulatory issues.

Additional measures include an asset cap and rigorous approval processes for new products, services, and market entry. The bank also plans to decrease its U.S. assets by roughly 10%, involving the sale of up to $50 billion in lower-yielding investment securities. These changes are expected to affect the bank's fiscal year 2025 earnings per share (EPS), as forecasted by BMO Capital.

In relation to a separate case, the bank has settled a spoofing case for over $20 million due to fraudulent trading tactics used by a former employee. Furthermore, the bank is preparing for a leadership transition with CEO Bharat Masrani set to retire next year, and Ray Chun, currently leading Canadian banking operations, to take over. These are the recent developments involving Toronto-Dominion Bank.

InvestingPro Insights

Toronto-Dominion Bank's recent resolution of AML issues in the United States has not only lifted a significant overhang from its stock but also revealed some interesting financial metrics. According to InvestingPro data, TD's P/E Ratio (Adjusted) for the last twelve months as of Q3 2024 stands at 14.2, suggesting a relatively attractive valuation compared to its peers. This aligns with Scotiabank's maintained Sector Outperform rating and could indicate potential upside for investors.

The bank's dividend yield of 5.23% as of the latest data is particularly noteworthy, especially considering that TD has raised its dividend for 14 consecutive years, as highlighted by an InvestingPro Tip. This consistent dividend growth, coupled with a 3.8% dividend growth rate in the last twelve months, underscores TD's commitment to shareholder returns even in the face of regulatory challenges.

Another InvestingPro Tip points out that TD is a prominent player in the Banks industry, which is reflected in its substantial market capitalization of $98.7 billion USD. This strong market position could provide TD with the resilience needed to navigate future challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities, particularly in its US Retail segment as mentioned in the Scotiabank analysis.

For investors seeking a deeper understanding of TD's financial health and growth prospects, InvestingPro offers 7 additional tips that could provide valuable insights into the bank's future performance.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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