Bernstein expects positive reception for BioMarin’s long-term outlook

Published 28/08/2024, 11:42
Bernstein expects positive reception for BioMarin’s long-term outlook

On Wednesday, Bernstein SocGen Group maintained a positive outlook on BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ:BMRN) stock, reiterating an Outperform rating and a $110.00 price target.

The affirmation comes ahead of the company's investor day scheduled for next week, where long-term financial targets are expected to be a focal point.

The analyst drew parallels between BioMarin and other companies that have historically set long-term financial targets, noting that such companies often do so when they perceive a significant discrepancy between internal estimates and market expectations.

In previous cases examined, including AbbVie (NYSE:ABBV), Alkermes (NASDAQ:ALKS), and Alexion (NASDAQ:ALXN), the announcement of long-term targets typically led to favorable stock market reactions.

Historical data suggests that about 70% of the companies reviewed experienced a positive stock response on the day of announcing their targets, with approximately 45% of cases seeing a stock increase of 5% or more. This pattern is attributed to the companies' investor relations teams' proficiency in gauging and managing investor expectations, as well as their confidence in the targets they set.

BioMarin, however, is noted to be in a distinct position where the consensus estimates for long-term operating margin are already high, at 47% Non-GAAP for the year 2030. Despite this, there is skepticism from the buyside regarding these numbers.

The analyst anticipates that management may focus less on surpassing long-term financial targets and more on establishing credible mid-term targets and demonstrating how they plan to achieve them.

In the context of BioMarin's upcoming investor day, the analysis suggests that management could confidently project operating margins in the high 30s percentage range for the years 2027-2028, even considering uncertainties surrounding their product Voxzogo, with potential for 40% or higher margins in the longer term.

In other recent news, BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. has undergone significant executive transitions. Dr. Henry J. Fuchs announced his retirement, and Dr. Greg Friberg has been appointed as the new Executive Vice President, Chief Worldwide Research and Development Officer. Additionally, James Sabry has assumed the role of Executive Vice President, Chief Business Officer.

BioMarin recently reported robust second-quarter results, with total revenue reaching a record $712 million, surpassing the anticipated $662 million. Consequently, the company raised its full-year revenue guidance to between $2.75 billion and $2.825 billion, indicating a 15% increase in year-over-year growth.

Analyst adjustments have also been made, with Stifel maintaining a Buy rating and increasing the price target. Bernstein SocGen Group upgraded BioMarin's stock rating to Outperform, reflecting a more optimistic outlook on the company's financial performance. However, TD Cowen lowered its price target, while retaining a Buy rating.

The company has revealed plans to reduce annual spending on its hemophilia treatment, Roctavian, to approximately $60 million by 2025, targeting markets in the U.S., Italy, and Germany. These recent developments highlight BioMarin's strategic planning and continued progress in its R&D efforts.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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