On Monday, Bernstein SocGen Group maintained its Underperform rating on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) with a price target of $120.00. The firm's analysis suggests that Tesla's impressive third-quarter margin results were influenced by non-recurring factors such as deferred revenue recognition and favorable commodity contract renewals.
These elements contributed to the reported 19.8% margins, but if adjusted for the $326 million in deferred revenue and higher energy credits, margins would have been 15.6%, still above the consensus estimate of 14.9%.
The report points out that Tesla's lower lithium costs per car were due to the timing of contract renewals, which may not continue to improve in the fourth quarter. Tesla has indicated that it expects its automotive gross margins excluding deferred revenue and credits to decrease sequentially. Bernstein's analysis raises questions about the sustainability of Tesla's margin strength and the company's future growth prospects.
Tesla's reported advancements in Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology have also come under scrutiny in the report. Despite claims by Tesla CEO Elon Musk of a significant improvement in FSD performance, third-party data does not seem to support these assertions. The data indicates only a 2.4 times increase in miles to disengagement since February 2022, which contrasts with the company's claims of a 100-fold improvement year-to-date.
Looking ahead, Bernstein SocGen Group expresses skepticism regarding Tesla's growth targets for the upcoming year. The firm suggests that Tesla's anticipated 20% to 30% unit growth hinges on both a successful production ramp-up and positive market reception for new models. However, given Tesla's history of delays in meeting launch timelines and what the firm perceives as modest differentiation for the new model(s), the analyst projects a more conservative 16% increase in FY25 volumes, reaching 2.1 million units.
The report concludes with speculation on Tesla's strategic direction, hinting that the company may be placing a significant bet on the success of its upcoming Cybercab.
In other recent news, Tesla reported strong third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $0.72, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.59. The financial services firm, Stifel, responded by upgrading its price target for Tesla and maintaining a buy rating on the stock. Stifel highlighted several key factors contributing to Tesla's positive outlook, including improved auto margins and the anticipated launch of a lower-priced vehicle in 2025. Furthermore, Tesla is projected to achieve a 20-30% growth in vehicle deliveries in 2025, supported by the ongoing momentum in Tesla's Energy Generation & Storage business.
In legal developments, the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals recently overturned a National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) order requiring Tesla CEO Elon Musk to delete a tweet from 2018. The court ruled that the NLRB's order infringed upon Musk's First Amendment rights. The court also instructed the NLRB to reevaluate its directive that Tesla must rehire a pro-union employee who had been terminated.
Meanwhile, in the automotive industry, Scout Motors, a division of Volkswagen AG (OTC:VWAGY), announced plans to adopt a direct-to-consumer sales model, similar to that of Tesla. This move is facing resistance from established auto dealers in the United States, who are preparing to challenge Scout Motors' strategy through legal and legislative actions.
Finally, Tesla and other companies with ties to former President Donald Trump, such as Continental Resources (NYSE:CLR) and Cantor Fitzgerald, have benefited significantly from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), President Joe Biden's landmark climate policy. Despite Trump's criticisms of the IRA, these companies have leveraged the act's tax breaks to make substantial investments in clean energy technologies.
InvestingPro Insights
To complement Bernstein SocGen Group's analysis, recent data from InvestingPro offers additional context on Tesla's financial position and market performance. Despite the skepticism expressed in the report, Tesla's stock has shown significant momentum, with a 23% return over the last week and a nearly 60% increase over the past six months. This surge has brought the stock price to 99.33% of its 52-week high, trading at $269.19 as of the last close.
InvestingPro Tips highlight that Tesla holds more cash than debt on its balance sheet, which could provide flexibility as the company navigates the challenges outlined in the Bernstein report. Additionally, 20 analysts have revised their earnings upwards for the upcoming period, suggesting some optimism in the financial community.
However, aligning with Bernstein's concerns about valuation, InvestingPro data shows Tesla trading at a high P/E ratio of 71.41, which is elevated relative to its near-term earnings growth potential. This high valuation multiple underscores the market's expectations for Tesla's future performance and the importance of meeting growth targets.
For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 22 additional tips for Tesla, providing a broader perspective on the company's financial health and market position.
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