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Introduction & Market Context
Ero Copper Corp (TSX:ERO) presented its full-year 2024 results on March 7, 2025, highlighting record production figures and setting ambitious growth targets for the coming years. The company’s stock has shown resilience, trading at $15.97 as of June 25, 2025, despite experiencing some volatility within its 52-week range of $9.30 to $23.40.
The copper producer, which operates mines in Brazil, delivered strong operational results in 2024 while successfully completing its Tucumã Operation—a key growth project that significantly boosts the company’s production profile. This expansion comes at a strategic time as global copper demand continues to grow, driven by electrification and renewable energy transitions.
2024 Financial and Operational Highlights
Ero Copper reported solid financial and operational performance for full-year 2024, with consolidated copper production reaching 40,600 tonnes and gold production totaling 57,210 ounces. The company generated $216.2 million in adjusted EBITDA and $145.4 million in cash flow from operations, while maintaining competitive cost structures with Caraíba C1 cash costs at $1.97/lb and gold C1 cash costs at $493/oz.
As shown in the following financial metrics chart, the company demonstrated improving quarterly performance throughout 2024, particularly in cash flow from operations, which grew significantly from $17 million in Q1 to $61 million in Q4:
Adjusted EBITDA remained strong across all quarters, ranging from $43 million to $62 million, while adjusted net income per share for the full year reached $0.78. This consistent financial performance provided Ero Copper with the foundation to pursue its growth initiatives while maintaining financial discipline.
Operational Performance by Asset
The Caraíba Operations, Ero Copper’s flagship copper asset, produced 35,444 tonnes of copper in concentrate for the full year 2024, with 8,566 tonnes produced in Q4. While processed tonnage fluctuated throughout the year, the operation maintained competitive C1 cash costs of $1.85/lb in Q4 and $1.97/lb for the full year, benefiting from lower concentrate treatment charges and favorable exchange rates.
The following chart illustrates the quarterly performance of the Caraíba Operations throughout 2024:
The Tucumã Operation, which represents a significant growth driver for Ero Copper, commenced production in 2024 and demonstrated rapid ramp-up in the fourth quarter. Copper production increased dramatically from 0.8 thousand tonnes in Q3 to 4.3 thousand tonnes in Q4, with grades more than doubling from 1.00% to 2.17% as shown in this operational data:
At the Xavantina gold operations, production reached 57,210 ounces for the full year, with 8,936 ounces produced in Q4. While the operation maintained strong full-year C1 cash costs of $493/oz and AISC of $1,006/oz, Q4 saw higher unit costs due to declining grades, as illustrated in the following performance metrics:
Balance Sheet and Liquidity Position
As of December 31, 2024, Ero Copper reported available liquidity of $90.4 million, with plans to increase its credit facility by an additional $50 million. This strategic financial move strengthens the company’s position as it continues to invest in growth projects while managing its debt obligations.
The company’s debt position remains manageable with total debt of $596 million and net debt of $546 million, resulting in leverage ratios of 2.8x (total debt) and 2.5x (net debt) relative to LTM adjusted EBITDA. The following chart illustrates the company’s liquidity position and potential expansion:
According to the Q1 2025 earnings report released after this presentation, Ero Copper’s liquidity position improved to $116 million, indicating successful execution of its financial strategy. The company also announced plans to begin repaying its revolving credit facility in the second half of 2025, demonstrating commitment to deleveraging while maintaining operational growth.
2025 Guidance and Three-Year Outlook
Ero Copper provided comprehensive guidance for 2025, projecting significant production growth driven by the full-year contribution from the Tucumã Operation. The company expects total copper production to reach 75-85 thousand tonnes, nearly doubling the 2024 output, while gold production is projected at 50-60 thousand ounces.
The detailed 2025 guidance across all operations is presented in the following table:
Looking beyond 2025, Ero Copper outlined an ambitious three-year production outlook that shows continued growth in copper production, reaching 85-95 thousand tonnes in both 2026 and 2027. This sustained production increase demonstrates the company’s confidence in its operational capabilities and asset quality:
Strategic Initiatives and Growth Projects
Ero Copper highlighted several key achievements in 2024 and outlined near-term strategic objectives. The company successfully completed the Tucumã Operation on time and safely, contributing to record Q4 copper production. Construction of a new shaft at the Pilar Mine advanced to support long-term operations at Caraíba, while a definitive earn-in agreement with Vale Base Metals for the Furnas Copper-Gold Project opened new growth avenues.
For the immediate future, Ero Copper is focused on four key objectives: achieving commercial production at Tucumã (targeted for H1 2025 according to the Q1 earnings call), deleveraging the balance sheet, advancing long-term growth initiatives, and initiating returns to shareholders. These priorities balance operational growth with financial discipline and shareholder value creation.
The Tucumã Operation continues its ramp-up process, with metallurgical recoveries and concentrate grades meeting or exceeding design targets. The company reported that scheduled downtime in early 2025 improved plant consistency, with performance strengthening from late February into March. Final tailings filtration circuit modifications were on track for completion by the end of March 2025, with copper production expected to increase quarter-on-quarter following this planned maintenance.
Market Position and Forward Outlook
Ero Copper’s 2024 results and forward guidance position the company for significant growth in the copper market. The near-doubling of copper production capacity through the Tucumã Operation strengthens the company’s competitive position at a time when copper demand continues to rise globally.
Despite missing revenue forecasts in Q1 2025 ($125.1 million actual vs. $152.96 million forecast), the company’s stock performance has remained resilient, suggesting investor confidence in Ero Copper’s long-term strategy. The company’s focus on operational excellence, strategic growth initiatives, and prudent financial management provides a solid foundation for future performance.
With commercial production at Tucumã expected in the first half of 2025 and plans to initiate shareholder returns while deleveraging the balance sheet, Ero Copper is balancing growth ambitions with financial discipline. The three-year production outlook demonstrates the company’s confidence in sustaining higher production levels, potentially positioning it for improved financial performance as copper markets remain supportive.
Full presentation:
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