Lundin Mining Q3 2025 presentation: Record revenue and increased copper guidance

Introduction & Market Context

Lundin Mining Corporation (TSX:LUN) reported its strongest quarterly performance of the year in its Q3 2025 financial results presentation, delivered on November 5, 2025. The mining company achieved record quarterly revenue of $1 billion, driven by improved copper production and favorable metal prices.

The company’s stock responded positively to the results, trading up 0.79% to $11.54 following the announcement, as investors welcomed the increased production guidance and improved cost outlook.

Quarterly Performance Highlights

Lundin Mining delivered significant operational improvements in the third quarter, with copper production reaching 87 kilotonnes, up from 80 kilotonnes in the previous quarter. Gold production remained steady at 38 thousand ounces, matching Q2 levels.

As shown in the following quarterly production results:

The company’s copper production has shown consistent growth throughout 2025, with Q3 representing the strongest quarter year-to-date. This performance prompted management to increase the annual copper production guidance to 319-337 kilotonnes, up from the original guidance of 303-330 kilotonnes.

Breaking down production by mine, Caserones showed the most significant improvement in Q3:

Caserones produced 35 kilotonnes of copper in Q3, up from 29 kilotonnes in Q2, while Chapada contributed 13 kilotonnes, up from 11 kilotonnes in the previous quarter. Candelaria maintained steady production at 37 kilotonnes, and Eagle contributed 2.4 kilotonnes.

Detailed Financial Analysis

The third quarter’s record $1 billion revenue translated into strong profitability metrics. Adjusted EBITDA reached $490 million, representing a significant improvement from $396 million in Q2 and yielding an impressive 49% margin.

The financial highlights demonstrate the company’s strong performance:

Revenue composition for the quarter showed copper accounting for 79% of total revenue, with gold contributing 13%, nickel 3%, molybdenum 2%, and other metals 3%. By operation, Candelaria generated 43% of revenue, followed by Caserones at 31%, Chapada at 21%, and Eagle at 5%.

The revenue breakdown by metal and mine is illustrated below:

A key driver of improved financial performance was the higher realized copper price of $4.61 per pound in Q3, compared to $4.24 per pound in Q2:

Cash costs also improved significantly, with consolidated C1 cash costs of $1.61 per pound of copper, leading the company to lower its full-year cash cost guidance:

Strategic Initiatives & Outlook

Lundin Mining highlighted several strategic initiatives aimed at future growth. The company is making progress with its Vicuña project, having spent $51 million (50% share) during the quarter. Additionally, the company reduced its full-year capital cost guidance by $45 million to $750 million.

A notable success story is the improved utilization of Caserones’ cathode production capacity:

The company has significantly increased cathode production at Caserones through improved irrigation rates, additional oxide ore sources, and better material placement. Cathode production is forecast to reach approximately 35,000 tonnes in 2025, nearly double the 2023 level of 18,900 tonnes.

Looking ahead, Lundin Mining identified several near-term catalysts expected to drive future growth:

The company expects to be net debt-free by year-end, with net debt standing at just $108 million as of the end of Q3 2025, supported by a cash balance of $290 million.

Forward-Looking Statements

Lundin Mining’s updated guidance reflects management’s confidence in continued operational improvements. The company increased its copper production guidance while simultaneously reducing its cash cost forecast:

The revised cash cost guidance by mine shows significant improvements, particularly at Chapada and Caserones:

CEO Jack Lundin emphasized that Q3 2025 was the company’s "best quarter year to date" and highlighted that Lundin Mining is "well-positioned to achieve our vision of becoming a top-tier copper producer of global scale."

With strong operational performance, increased production guidance, and multiple growth projects in the pipeline, Lundin Mining appears well-positioned to capitalize on favorable copper market conditions as it works toward its strategic vision of becoming a leading global copper producer.

Full presentation:

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