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On Thursday, UBS has increased the price target for Pennon Group Plc (PNN:LN) (OTC: PEGRF) to GBP 8.90, up from the previous GBP 8.70. The firm has also reaffirmed its Buy rating on the stock.
The adjustment reflects UBS's view that Pennon Group is trading at a roughly 2% discount to its March 2025 Regulatory Asset Base (RAB) and anticipates a smaller dividend cut than the market expects.
Pennon Group, a water utility and waste management company, is priced in anticipation of a roughly 35% dividend reduction. However, UBS forecasts a cut closer to 25%, which aligns with the adjustments made during the stringent price review of 1999. The firm's stance is based on this more optimistic dividend outlook, suggesting a lesser impact on shareholder returns.
The analysis also recognizes that Pennon Group may require capital measures to remain comfortably within the 9% funds from operations (FFO) to Group Debt thresholds. UBS estimates that this could amount to around GBP 300 million, comparable to the fraction of equity raised by Severn Trent (LON:SVT) in September 2023. This potential capital raise is seen as a prudent step to maintain financial health.
The Buy rating stands as UBS's vote of confidence in Pennon Group's financial strategy and market position. The new price target of GBP 8.90 is indicative of UBS's expectation of the company's stock performance, taking into account the anticipated dividend cut and the potential equity raise in comparison to its peers.
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