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Introduction & Market Context
PTT Global Chemical PCL (PTTGC) presented its Q2 2025 analyst meeting on August 18, 2025, highlighting strategic initiatives and financial performance amid challenging global market conditions. The company’s stock has responded positively, with shares rising 14.75% to 24.40 following the presentation.
The company is navigating a complex global landscape characterized by economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and structural changes in key markets like China. Despite upward revisions to global GDP forecasts, demand remains subdued, while geopolitical factors continue to drive volatility in crude oil and energy prices.
As shown in the following chart detailing global economic uncertainty and geopolitical factors, GDP growth projections have been revised upward, but significant challenges remain, particularly with China phasing out 12-15% of its total olefins capacity that has operated for more than 20 years:
Quarterly Performance Highlights
PTTGC reported Q2 2025 revenue of 133,381 million baht, slightly up from 132,547 million baht in Q1 2025, but down from 167,054 million baht in Q2 2024. Adjusted EBITDA showed quarter-on-quarter improvement, rising to 6,083 million baht in Q2 2025 from 5,377 million baht in Q1 2025, though still below the 9,662 million baht recorded in Q2 2024.
The following chart illustrates PTTGC’s core performance metrics and adjusted EBITDA contribution by business segment:
The improvement in Q2 2025 performance was primarily driven by better refinery margins, with Gross Refinery Margin (GRM) increasing significantly from 3.4 $/BBL in Q1 2025 to 5.3 $/BBL in Q2 2025. The company also benefited from improved spreads in several product categories, including HDPE-Naphtha (361 $/ton in Q2 vs. 320 $/ton in Q1) and PX Spread (239 $/ton in Q2 vs. 218 $/ton in Q1).
The following waterfall chart breaks down the factors contributing to the quarter-on-quarter improvement in Adjusted EBITDA:
Strategic Initiatives
PTTGC outlined a comprehensive strategic transformation journey aimed at enhancing competitiveness and financial performance. The company’s "GC Evolution Journey" encompasses five key transformations: Portfolio Transformation, Holistic Optimization, High Value Business, Sustainable Portfolio, and MTP Transformation.
The following strategic roadmap illustrates the company’s transformation initiatives and expected outcomes:
A central element of the strategy is portfolio optimization, with PTTGC progressing on restructuring identified underperforming assets. The company has discontinued equity income from PTTAC since Q4 2024 due to site closure, while Vencorex France and Vencorex TDI entered liquidation in May 2025, resulting in a deconsolidation gain of 1.5 billion baht in Q2 2025. Additionally, PTTGC signed an SPA for the sale of Vencorex US and Vencorex Thailand in August 2025, with an expected gain of 400-600 million baht upon completion.
The company is also pursuing an asset-light strategy for non-core assets, primarily infrastructure assets, with target proceeds of up to 30 billion baht expected to be utilized for deleveraging. Closing of select assets is anticipated during H1 2026, with the remaining group expected in H2 2026.
PTTGC aims to achieve a 300 million USD annual EBITDA uplift by 2030 through holistic optimization initiatives, including feedstock optimization, market-focused business transformation, and enhanced operational efficiency.
Sustainability Initiatives
Sustainability forms a core component of PTTGC’s strategy, with the company targeting to become a "Net Zero company with Sustainable Growth." Key sustainability goals include reducing greenhouse gas emissions by more than 20% by 2035 and achieving net zero by 2050, while building a sustainable product portfolio representing 20-30% of total products by 2030.
The following image illustrates PTTGC’s sustainability roadmap and targets:
In the Bio & Circularity space, PTTGC is developing a bio-refinery with a first phase capacity of 20 KTA and potential expansion to 80 KTA, expected to generate a 120 million baht profit uplift in 2025. The company is also exploring chemical recycling opportunities through leveraging existing assets or partnership models.
Industry Outlook
PTTGC highlighted several external factors influencing market dynamics, including increasing pressure on Russian and Iranian oil supplies, which could pose upside risks to oil prices. With 26% of global oil supply dependent on geopolitically sensitive regions, market volatility is expected to persist.
The following chart illustrates the geopolitical risks affecting oil supply:
The company also noted multiple factors driving uncertainty in oil markets, including tensions with oil supply, potential new sanctions, and evolving demand patterns:
In the petrochemical sector, PTTGC observed that aromatics margins were supported by unplanned outages in key markets, while olefins chains faced pressure from new capacities. The company is closely monitoring China’s "Anti-Involution" policy, which aims to phase out older chemical plants, potentially improving industry supply-demand dynamics over the medium term.
Forward-Looking Statements
Looking ahead, PTTGC expects its financial performance to improve progressively through 2025 and 2026, driven by strategic portfolio optimization, operational improvements, and potential recovery in market conditions. The company projects a transition from net loss to potential gains as its transformation initiatives take effect.
The company maintains a strong financial position with total assets of 217 billion baht as of June 30, 2025, providing a solid foundation for executing its strategic initiatives. PTTGC’s credit ratings remain investment grade, with ratings of BBB- from S&P, Baa3 from Moody’s, and BBB from Fitch.
While near-term challenges persist, including global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, PTTGC’s strategic transformation and portfolio optimization efforts position the company to navigate the evolving market landscape and deliver improved shareholder returns over the medium to long term.
Full presentation:
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