On Monday, RBC Capital Markets adjusted its outlook on Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) shares, raising the price target to $160 from the previous $135 while maintaining an Outperform rating. The revision follows the approval of Moderna's Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) vaccine by regulatory authorities.
The vaccine's efficacy is reported at 79% on the label, slightly lower than the 84% previously published in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM).
Despite the difference, the firm views the efficacy as generally comparable to that of competitors like GSK and Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), albeit with caveats due to variations in trial conditions such as median follow-up times and seasonal prevalence of the virus.
A notable distinction highlighted by RBC Capital is the absence of Guillain-Barré risk citation for Moderna's vaccine, a concern present with GSK and Pfizer's offerings.
Additionally, the ease of administration of Moderna's vaccine is emphasized, as it comes in a simple prefilled syringe, which stands in contrast to the multi-step and multi-vial processes required for its competitors.
The upcoming Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) meeting scheduled for June 26-27 is anticipated to be significant in determining the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) stance on the durability of the RSV vaccines. However, the firm anticipates no differential recommendation between the vaccines from Moderna, GSK, and Pfizer.
RBC Capital concludes that the approval of Moderna's RSV vaccine is positive news, especially considering the successful launch of RSV vaccines by Pfizer and GSK, which have generated $2.5 billion in revenue since last fall.
With a competitive product now approved, Moderna's financial model has been updated to reflect this milestone, leading to the increased price target.
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