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GUERNSEY - Ruffer Investment Company Limited, a Guernsey-incorporated closed-ended investment company, has released its Monthly Investment Report for April 2025, revealing significant market volatility influenced by US President Trump’s economic policies. April was marked as the fifth most volatile month for US equities since 1928, with the S&P 500 ending the month down only 0.7%.
The investment climate shifted dramatically following Trump’s tariff announcements on April 2, which included sweeping tariffs and comments that seemed to challenge the Federal Reserve’s independence. This led to a sharp decline in US equities, recording their fifth-largest two-day drop in more than 50 years. The dollar and US treasuries also experienced unusual declines, with the 30-year yield surpassing 5%.
Amid growing concerns over the US economy and increasing recession odds, Trump’s policies began to show their impact on market confidence. However, on April 8, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on his tariff threats, which resulted in the S&P 500’s best daily performance since October 2008, with a 9.5% gain. He also reassured the public regarding Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s position and expressed a desire to negotiate with China.
The report highlighted significant currency and commodity movements, with the dollar falling 5% in April and nearly 9% year to date, while gold rose 5% in the month and 25% year to date. These trends suggest a diminishing trust in US financial assets and the US economy under Trump’s administration.
Despite the tumultuous market conditions, Ruffer’s portfolio advanced positively in April, with a year-to-date increase of 4.4%. The company credits its success to its volatility and credit protections, as well as its exposure to gold. Ruffer maintains a cautious outlook, emphasizing the importance of protective measures and diversified non-US assets in the current economic environment.
The report concludes that while investors may find temporary relief in Trump’s tariff and Federal Reserve policy reversals, US stocks remain overvalued, and the president’s dual goals of reshaping global trade and funding tax cuts through tariffs could continue to introduce uncertainty and volatility into the markets.
This analysis is based on a press release statement from Ruffer Investment Company Limited.
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