Susquehanna stays Neutral on Sun Country Airlines stock on margin outlook

Published 16/08/2024, 13:08
Susquehanna stays Neutral on Sun Country Airlines stock on margin outlook

On Friday, Sun Country Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ:SNCY) had its price target lowered by Susquehanna from $13.00 to $11.00, while the firm maintained a Neutral rating on the stock. The adjustment comes as the analyst anticipates improved earnings in the second half of 2024 and for the full year of 2025, citing slightly better operating margins due to lower fuel costs and depreciation and amortization expenses.

The financial firm increased its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimate for the latter half of 2024 by $0.05 to $0.10, and for the fiscal year 2025 by $0.10 to $1.35. These revisions are primarily attributed to the anticipated reduction in fuel expenses.

The forecast for Sun Country Airlines includes an 8% year-over-year increase in total block hours for 2025, with a detailed expectation of a decrease in Scheduled Service and Charter block hours by approximately 8% and 2%, respectively, and a significant rise in cargo block hours by around 58%, which is slightly below the company's guidance range of 60% to 63% year-over-year.

Additionally, the analyst projects a 1% year-over-year increase in total revenue per block hour and a 1% decrease in total operating expenses per block hour for fiscal year 2025. Despite these positive adjustments to the earnings estimates, Susquehanna has revised its valuation multiples downward, reducing the enterprise value to EBITDAR (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization, and restructuring or rent costs) multiple by 0.5 to 3.5 times and the price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple by 1 to 9 times.

The revision in valuation multiples is based on the perspective that ultra-low-cost carriers (ULCCs) may face a challenging environment heading into 2025. After considering the updates to the profit and loss statements, target multiples, and cash flow assumptions, the price target for Sun Country Airlines has been adjusted to $11.00.

In other recent news, Sun Country Airlines Holdings has been making headlines with its financial performance and strategic plans. The company recently reported an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.06 for the second quarter of 2024, surpassing analyst and consensus expectations. However, it's worth noting that the airline has set its guidance for the third quarter below market estimates.

Sun Country also revealed a 2.6% decline in total revenue in the second quarter, despite growth in charter and cargo revenues. TD Cowen, maintaining its Buy rating on the airline, suggests 2024 should be seen as a transitional period for Sun Country. The firm anticipates significant changes around mid-2025 as the airline expands its cargo operations, expected to account for approximately 20% of its revenue by 2026.

The company's management is maintaining a conservative balance sheet, preparing to leverage potential market opportunities. This strategy comes amid plans for aggressive capacity reallocation into charter and cargo segments, and an expectation of a strong winter season for leisure travel.

InvestingPro Insights

As Sun Country Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ:SNCY) navigates a dynamic industry landscape, recent InvestingPro data and tips offer additional context for investors. With a market capitalization of $510.64 million and trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.39, the airline is positioned at a low earnings multiple, which could signal a potential value opportunity for investors (InvestingPro Tip #3). This is further supported by the company's share buyback activities, indicating management confidence in the company's value (InvestingPro Tip #0).

Despite a slight revenue growth of 5.6% over the last twelve months as of Q2 2024, there has been a quarterly revenue decline of 2.57% in the same period. This mixed performance reflects the volatile nature of the airline industry, which has been echoed by analysts with recent downward earnings revisions for the upcoming period (InvestingPro Tip #2). Additionally, the stock's volatility is evident in its price movements, with a significant 37.57% drop over the last six months and trading near its 52-week low (InvestingPro Tip #8).

Investors should note that while the stock has experienced a downturn, analysts predict profitability for the current year (InvestingPro Tip #10), and the company has been profitable over the last twelve months (InvestingPro Tip #11). For those seeking more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers many additional tips to guide investment decisions regarding Sun Country Airlines.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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