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Introduction & Market Context
TC Energy Corp (NYSE:TRP) presented its third quarter 2025 results on November 6, highlighting a 10% year-over-year increase in comparable EBITDA despite a slight revenue miss. The company's stock showed minimal movement in pre-market trading, down 0.02% to $50.34, reflecting cautious investor sentiment following mixed earnings results. TC Energy reported earnings per share of $0.77, slightly above the forecasted $0.76, while revenue came in at $2.63 billion, just below the expected $2.65 billion.
The presentation emphasized TC Energy's strategic positioning to capitalize on growing energy demand across North America, particularly in natural gas infrastructure supporting power generation, LNG exports, and data centers.
Quarterly Performance Highlights
TC Energy reported a 10% increase in comparable EBITDA from continuing operations, reaching $2.65 billion in Q3 2025. This growth was primarily driven by strong performance in the company's natural gas pipeline operations, which saw increased system deliveries and record flows across multiple regions.
As shown in the following quarterly performance breakdown:
The Canadian Natural Gas Pipelines segment delivered a 3% increase in net income compared to Q3 2024, with total system deliveries averaging 23.0 Bcf/d, up 2% year-over-year. U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines saw daily average flows of 26.3 Bcf/d, a 1% increase, with deliveries to LNG facilities averaging 3.7 Bcf/d, up 15% compared to the same period last year. The company also highlighted that its Bruce Power nuclear facility achieved 94% availability in the quarter.
CEO François Poirier emphasized the company's strategic positioning during the earnings call, stating, "Our strategy is working," and highlighting TC Energy's significant role in LNG exports, noting, "We move approximately 30% of all feed gas bound for LNG export."
Strategic Growth Initiatives
TC Energy's presentation outlined its progress on 2025 strategic priorities, focusing on maximizing asset value, executing growth projects, and ensuring financial strength. The company has brought approximately $8 billion of assets into service year-to-date, with projects tracking about 15% under budget. Additionally, TC Energy announced $0.7 billion in new growth projects and sanctioned $5.1 billion of new projects.
The following slide illustrates the company's progress on its strategic priorities:
The company highlighted its unrivaled footprint across North America, positioning it to capture significant market growth in natural gas demand, which is projected to increase by 45 Bcf/d by 2035. TC Energy currently delivers 25-30% of LNG feedgas and has set 14 delivery records across its network in the last twelve months.
This strategic positioning is illustrated in the following map:
TC Energy's growth strategy is supported by improving regulatory environments across Canada, the United States, and Mexico. In Canada, Bill C-5 aims to streamline national interest projects, while the U.S. has seen regulatory clarity from various agencies. Mexico's Plan México 2030 includes 8.5 GW of new capacity from natural gas plants, with TC Energy's assets strategically positioned to support 10 of 14 natural gas power plants.
The company's growth strategy is grounded in four key pillars:
Capital Allocation Strategy
TC Energy emphasized its disciplined approach to capital allocation, focusing on projects with compelling build multiples in the 5-7x range. The company has sanctioned projects with a weighted average build multiple of 6.0x over the last twelve months, including initiatives like TCO Connector, Northwoods, Pulaski, and Maysville.
The following slide details these project announcements:
The company has demonstrated a trend of increasing returns on its investments, with the weighted average unlevered after-tax IRR of growth projects rising from approximately 8.5% in 2020 to 12.5% in 2025 year-to-date:
TC Energy's capital program for 2026-2028 is fully funded without requiring equity issuance. The company plans to invest approximately $18 billion in gross sanctioned and pending capital expenditures over this period, supported by $25 billion in comparable funds generated from operations.
The funding plan is detailed in the following breakdown:
Forward-Looking Statements
Looking ahead, TC Energy provided a positive outlook with expected comparable EBITDA growth. The company forecasts 2026E comparable EBITDA of $11.6-$11.8 billion, with long-term growth of 5-7% extending to 2028E.
The company plans to maintain its disciplined capital allocation strategy with targeted annual net capital expenditures of $6-7 billion through 2030. TC Energy's project backlog underpins growth visibility through the end of the decade, with the remaining investment capacity expected to be filled by year-end 2026.
In the power segment, TC Energy highlighted its Bruce Power investment as a key growth driver for the next decade. The company expects approximately $8 billion in net distributions from Bruce Power between 2025 and 2035, with the Major Component Replacement (MCR) program extending the site life by approximately 35 years and bringing net peak output to 7,000 MW.
For 2026, TC Energy outlined its strategic priorities, focusing on maximizing asset value through safety and operational excellence, executing growth projects with build multiples in the 5-7x range, and ensuring financial strength with a target of 4.75x debt-to-EBITDA ratio.
While TC Energy's presentation painted a positive picture of its performance and outlook, investors should note the slight revenue miss in Q3 2025 and consider potential challenges including fluctuations in natural gas demand, regulatory changes, and execution risks for large-scale infrastructure projects. Nevertheless, the company's strong EBITDA growth and disciplined capital allocation strategy position it well to navigate these challenges and deliver on its long-term growth objectives.
Full presentation:
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