True Corp Q2 2025 slides: Stable performance amid headwinds, guidance revised

Introduction & Market Context

True Corporation PCL (SET:TRUE) presented its Q2 2025 financial results on August 6, 2025, revealing a period of stable normalized performance despite facing significant macroeconomic challenges in Thailand. The company’s stock, which has declined over 56% year-to-date, responded positively to the earnings release with a 0.92% increase, despite management’s decision to revise full-year guidance downward.

The telecommunications provider, currently valued at $141 million in market capitalization, highlighted its successful spectrum auction and ongoing network modernization efforts as key strategic initiatives to strengthen its competitive position in a challenging market environment.

Quarterly Performance Highlights

True Corp reported normalized service revenue of THB 41.4 billion for Q2 2025, showing marginal improvement on a normalized basis despite headline figures indicating a 1.1% year-over-year decline. The company’s EBITDA remained stable at THB 25.0 billion, with normalized net profit after tax reaching THB 4.2 billion, while reported profit was THB 2.0 billion due to one-time effects.

As shown in the following chart of quarterly financial performance:

The company’s performance was notably impacted by a one-time network outage during the quarter, which affected topline results. However, management emphasized that normalized metrics showed resilience in the core business.

Mobile service revenue, which constitutes the largest portion of True’s business, improved marginally quarter-over-quarter when normalized for the network outage incident and lower domestic roaming revenue. The company reported a 5.6% year-over-year improvement in blended ARPU to THB 219, despite subscriber numbers declining by 5.8% year-over-year and 2.6% quarter-over-quarter.

The following chart illustrates the mobile service revenue and subscriber trends:

True’s online revenue segment provided a bright spot, growing 2.8% year-over-year and 1.7% quarter-over-quarter, driven by higher contribution from consumer broadband services. This growth was supported by a 0.3% improvement in ARPU and 0.4% growth in subscribers.

In contrast, the PayTV segment continued its decline with revenue falling 12.5% year-over-year, reflecting ongoing challenges in this business line as subscribers decreased by 11.8% year-over-year.

Strategic Initiatives

A key highlight of True’s presentation was its successful spectrum auction, which strengthened the company’s spectrum portfolio. The acquisition of additional 2300 MHz and 1500 MHz spectrum for THB 26.4 billion (with a 15-year license period) is expected to deliver significant benefits, including better coverage, faster speeds, and substantial financial benefits.

The company’s comprehensive spectrum strategy is illustrated in this detailed breakdown:

True Corp also reported significant progress in its network modernization efforts, with 94% completion in Q2 2025 and full completion expected by Q3. This modernization, along with the deployment of a unified IT system, is central to the company’s customer experience strategy.

The organization is undergoing a transformation focused on AI-centered simplification and automation in systems and processes. Management highlighted a flatter leadership structure and strengthened focus on growth areas such as B2B and home solutions.

Revised Guidance & Outlook

In response to macroeconomic headwinds and the impact of the network outage, True Corp revised its full-year 2025 guidance. Service revenue growth expectations were lowered from 2-3% to flat to +1%, while EBITDA growth guidance was adjusted from 8-10% to 7-8%. The company maintained its CAPEX guidance at THB 28-30 billion.

The revised guidance is detailed in the following chart:

Despite the near-term adjustments, management emphasized that long-term guidance remains unchanged, with targets including an EBITDA margin of 67% by 2027, CAPEX intensity reduction to 13-14% by 2027, and leverage below 3.0x by 2027.

For the second half of 2025, the company plans to shift focus to long-term transformation initiatives, including maximizing customer benefits through network and spectrum improvements, driving B2B and home solutions growth, and maintaining financial discipline while committing to dividend payments.

Financial Position & Debt Management

True Corp reported significant progress in debt reduction, with net debt decreasing by THB 33 billion year-over-year and leverage improving from 4.7x to 4.0x. The company successfully issued debentures of THB 18 billion at a weighted average interest rate of 3.4% in August 2025.

The improvement in net debt and leverage is illustrated in this chart:

Operating expenses declined by 8.0% year-over-year, benefiting from synergies, network modernization, and reduced electricity tariffs. This cost discipline contributed to the 2.6% year-over-year improvement in EBITDA despite revenue challenges.

The company’s half-year performance comparison shows the impact of these efficiency measures:

While True Corp faces near-term challenges from Thailand’s macroeconomic environment and the impact of declining tourism on its mobile business, its strategic spectrum investments, network modernization, and cost discipline position the company to navigate the current headwinds while building foundations for future growth. Investors will be watching closely to see if these initiatives can translate into improved financial performance in the coming quarters.

Full presentation:

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