How are energy investors positioned?
On Wednesday, Morgan Stanley made a positive adjustment to its rating on Usiminas (USIM5:BZ) (OTC: OTC:USNZY) stock, shifting from an Equalweight to an Overweight stance. This adjustment comes with a revised price target set at R$9.70, decreased from the previous R$11.00.
The rationale behind the upgrade, as stated by the analyst from Morgan Stanley, centers on the belief that the market has undervalued the potential benefits of the blast furnace (BF) refurbishment. The analyst suggests there is a possibility for upside if Usiminas can achieve even part of the efficiencies it has guided. These improvements have not yet been realized in the company's financial results, according to the analyst, who believes that the market prematurely incorporated these expectations into the stock's price.
Morgan Stanley's outlook is further buoyed by the anticipation of cost reductions that are expected to materialize in the company's performance. The new management's emphasis on long-term profitability and its proven ability to turn assets around were also highlighted as reasons for optimism.
The analyst's confidence is such that the revised model includes what is considered a conservative estimate—25% of the productivity gains from the overhaul of BF#3—as projected by Usiminas management. These gains are expected to begin reflecting in the company's financial outcomes as early as the fourth quarter of 2024.
In other recent news, Affirm Holdings (NASDAQ:AFRM) Inc. has seen a flurry of positive analyst attention. Morgan Stanley upgraded Affirm's rating from Underweight to Equalweight and raised its price target to $37 from $20, citing strategic moves that position the company to attract a higher-income customer base. Mizuho Securities maintained its Outperform rating, projecting a potential 30-35% increase in gross merchandise volume (GMV) for fiscal year 2027 due to lower interest rates. Barclays also reiterated its Overweight rating following Affirm's integration with Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) Pay, which could expand the company's reach among iPhone users.
These recent developments come as Affirm experiences significant growth in the buy now, pay later (BNPL) sector. According to Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE) Analytics, consumers are expected to spend a record $18.5 billion this holiday season using BNPL services. Affirm, along with other companies like Klarna and Afterpay, is anticipated to gain market share from traditional payment methods.
Affirm has also announced a partnership with Apple Pay, offering flexible payment options to U.S. customers. This integration allows eligible users to split their purchases into biweekly or monthly payments. Each transaction will be underwritten individually to promote responsible lending. This is part of Affirm's strategy for fiscal 2025, which includes maintaining a 30% growth in GMV while moderating operating expenses growth. The company has committed to achieving GAAP profitability by the fourth quarter of 2025.
InvestingPro Insights
To complement Morgan Stanley's optimistic outlook on Usiminas, recent data from InvestingPro provides additional context for investors. Affirm Holdings (AFRM), while in a different sector, offers some interesting parallels in terms of market dynamics.
InvestingPro data shows that Affirm has experienced significant growth, with a revenue increase of 46.29% over the last twelve months as of Q4 2023, reaching $2.32 billion. This robust growth is particularly noteworthy given the current economic climate and aligns with the potential for growth that Morgan Stanley sees in Usiminas following its blast furnace refurbishment.
However, it's important to note that Affirm's strong top-line growth hasn't translated to profitability yet. An InvestingPro Tip highlights that analysts do not anticipate the company to be profitable this year, which serves as a reminder that growth and profitability don't always go hand in hand—a consideration that may also apply to Usiminas as it implements its efficiency improvements.
Another InvestingPro Tip indicates that Affirm's stock price movements are quite volatile, which could be relevant to Usiminas investors as they consider the potential market reactions to the company's ongoing transformations. This volatility, coupled with Affirm's strong 119% price return over the past year, underscores the potential for significant price movements in stocks undergoing major operational changes or in sectors experiencing rapid shifts.
For investors seeking a deeper understanding of market dynamics and company-specific insights, InvestingPro offers 5 additional tips for Affirm, which could provide valuable context for analyzing companies undergoing significant operational changes like Usiminas.
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