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Investing.com -- Antofagasta’s shares traded lower on Wednesday despite reporting stronger-than-expected copper sales volumes in the first quarter of 2025, largely due to higher-than-expected cash costs and weaker by-product performance.
Copper production for the quarter was 155kt, in line with the Visible Alpha consensus. However, copper sales volumes exceeded expectations by 7%, slightly surpassing Morgan Stanley’s own forecast by 1%.
While copper performance was strong, by-product production was weak. Molybdenum and gold production missed consensus estimates by 10% and 15%, respectively, which contributed to net cash costs of US$1.54 per pound, 8-9% above both consensus and Morgan Stanley’s estimates.
Although the company reported provisional pricing gains of US$164 million, mainly due to a 12% increase in copper prices during the quarter, the higher-than-expected costs overshadowed the positive pricing movement.
Antofagasta (LON:ANTO) maintained its 2025 copper production guidance of 660–700kt, with a midpoint of 675kt, which is in line with consensus and slightly above Morgan Stanley’s estimate of 668kt.
The mining company also reiterated its net cash cost guidance of US$1.45–1.65 per pound and its capital expenditure outlook of US$3.9 billion for the year.
On the Zaldivar front, Antofagasta is still awaiting a decision on the extension of its mining and water permits beyond May 2025.
The company filed its response to the third and final round of comments from Chilean government agencies last month, and these agencies have begun submitting their responses in a timely manner.
The company remains focused on reaching a resolution in the second quarter of 2025. For context, Zaldivar accounts for 6% of the company’s 2025 production, 3% of EBITDA, and 2% of its net present value.
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts noted, “We estimate 2025 consensus EBITDA estimate to remain largely unchanged on the back of today’s results,” adding that they expect Antofagasta shares to “trade largely in line with the sector at the open.”