BAE maintains upgraded outlook, warns prolonged U.S. shutdown could delay funding

Published 12/11/2025, 09:12
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- BAE Systems reported solid trading for the second half of 2025, maintaining its upgraded full-year guidance issued in July and pointing to continued momentum in defence orders.

Sales for 2025 are still expected to rise between 8% and 10% from last year’s £28.3 billion, with underlying EBIT up 9% to 11% from £3 billion, and underlying EPS increasing by 8% to 10% from 68.5 pence.

Free cash flow is projected to exceed £1.1 billion. The guidance assumes a $1.25 GBP/USD exchange rate and remains unchanged from July’s upgrade.

Order intake has surpassed £27 billion so far this year, including roughly £4 billion for 20 Typhoon aircraft and weapons integration for Turkey, $3.3 billion in electronic systems programs, $1.7 billion in U.S. combat vehicle funding, £1.1 billion in MBDA missile orders, and £0.9 billion for the Dreadnought submarine program.

Additional frigate orders from Norway and the U.K. are expected to be finalized after 2025.

"We continue to deliver strong financial and operational performance in the second half of the year, underpinning the full-year guidance we upgraded in July,” said Chief Executive Charles Woodburn.

“The recent agreement with Türkiye for Typhoon aircraft and announcement by Norway in respect of Type 26 frigates demonstrate sustained global demand for our leading defence capabilities,” he added.

BAE also said its U.S. operations have not yet been affected by the government shutdown but warned that a prolonged closure could delay contract funding and payments.

The company remains encouraged by recent signs of progress in Congress and said its portfolio “aligns well with national defence strategies,” with NATO spending increases providing a supportive environment for growth.

The company expects to return about £1.5 billion to shareholders this year through dividends and a £500 million share buyback.

Preliminary full-year results are due on February 18, 2026.

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