CaixaBank stock falls on Q1 results despite profit beat

Investing.com -- CaixaBank shares tumbled 5.6% today following the announcement of its first quarter results for 2025.

Despite reporting a 14% net profit beat, largely due to lower than expected loan loss provisions and a significant one-off boosting other income, the stock experienced a downturn. The Spanish bank’s pre-provision profit surpassed expectations by 8%, yet this was not enough to buoy investor sentiment.

The results, released this morning, showed that CaixaBank has not yet recognized the amount related to full-year 2024 net interest income (NII) and fees, which is estimated to be around EUR 600 million, or approximately 12% of the consensus for full-year 2025 net profit.

The bank’s management confirmed its full-year 2025 guidance, which includes a mid-single-digit year-on-year (y/y) decrease in NII, aligning with consensus estimates of EUR 10.56 billion, a roughly 5.0% y/y decline. Service revenue is expected to rise by a low-to-mid single-digit percentage y/y, with consensus forecasts at EUR 5.19 billion, indicating a 4.0% y/y increase.

Recurrent costs are projected to climb by about 5% y/y, closely matching the consensus of EUR 6.41 billion, or a 4.9% y/y increase.

The bank also anticipates a cost of risk below 30 basis points, with consensus at approximately 29 basis points. The CET1 ratio goal is set between 11.5% and 12.25%, with consensus around 12.4%. Additionally, CaixaBank aims for a cash payout target of 50%-60% and a return on tangible equity (ROTE) around 16%, slightly below the consensus of 16.4%.

In response to the results, RBC analysts commented, "CABK’s latest Investor Day targets are achievable and provide a high degree of confidence of what to expect going forward. However, we find it hard to identify future incremental catalysts for the shares and prefer to stay on the sidelines at current valuation levels."

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