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Investing.com -- HelloFresh SE (ETR:HFGG) shares fell 15% on Thursday after the German meal-kit maker lowered its full-year outlook, citing a stronger euro and weaker sales in its ready-to-eat segment.
The stock has extended its sharp decline and is currently down around 37% year-to-date.
The company now expects adjusted core profit (AEBITDA) of €415–465 million ($486–544 million) this year, down from a prior range of €450–500 million. HelloFresh said the revision reflects the euro’s sharper-than-expected rise against the U.S. dollar and Canadian dollar since it issued its initial guidance.
A company-compiled consensus pegs 2024 AEBITDA at €466 million.
Second-quarter results showed a 13% year-on-year drop in revenue, missing analysts’ estimates for a 9% decline. The shortfall was largely attributed to currency headwinds from weaker U.S., Canadian and Australian dollars, in line with the FX sensitivity outlined in its 2024 annual report.
Meal-kit revenue fell 16.5% from a year earlier, while ready-to-eat sales slid 5.7%, a sharper drop than expected.
"The Q2 results are a real mix of puts and takes," Morgan Stanley analyst Luke Holbrook said in a note.
"However, with FCF generation strong, meal kit margin a standout >15% in Q2, and consensus already in line on the lowered guide on an adj. EBIT level, there are also several positives, which could be well received by investors," he added.
For 2025, the company now projects revenue to decline 6–8% in constant currency, compared with a previous forecast of 3–8%.