Just Eat Q1 misses forecasts; guidance held, no update on Prosus bid

Investing.com -- Just Eat Takeaway (AS:TKWY) on Wednesday reported weaker-than-expected order volumes and GTV in Q1 2025, with no new developments on the Prosus (OTC:PROSF) offer, as competitive pressures and regional softness weighed on performance.

Group Gross Transaction (JO:NTUJ) Value (GTV) was flat year-on-year at €4.7 billion, both on a reported and constant currency basis, missing the company-compiled consensus which expected a 3% increase. 

The underperformance was primarily due to the Rest of World segment, where GTV declined 15% year-on-year. This was below consensus expectations of an 8% decline. 

Excluding Rest of World, GTV rose 2% year-on-year (3% at constant FX), still short of the company’s full-year guidance of 4–8% growth.

Order volumes fell 6% year-on-year, consistent with Q4 2024 and 3 percentage points below consensus. 

In Europe, orders dropped 4% year-on-year, improving slightly from a 5% decline in Q4. The UK & Ireland region saw orders fall 5%, flat versus Q4. Rest of World orders declined 14%, a marginal improvement from -15% in the previous quarter.

According to Barclays (LON:BARC), Just Eat Takeaway continues to lose market share in the UK & Ireland, particularly to Deliveroo (OTC:DROOF), which reported accelerating order growth, up 7% in Q1 2025 compared to 5% in Q4 and 2% in Q3. 

In contrast, Just Eat Takeaway’s order trend in the region has remained negative, -2% in Q3, -5% in Q4, and -5% in Q1.

Despite the soft performance, management reiterated its full-year guidance. GTV growth excluding the Rest of World is still expected to range between 4% and 8% on a constant currency basis. 

Adjusted EBITDA guidance was maintained at €360–380 million, broadly in line with the current consensus estimate of €367 million.

Free cash flow before working capital changes is expected to be approximately €100 million, and the planned €150 million investment to accelerate growth was reaffirmed.

There was no update on the proposed €20.30 per share offer from Prosus. Both RBC Capital Markets and Barclays confirmed that the offer document is still expected in Q2 2025, with transaction settlement likely by year-end.

RBC Capital Markets reiterated its “sector perform” rating with a €25 price target, citing confidence in the company’s ability to deliver on profitability but maintaining a cautious stance on mid-term growth. 

Barclays remains “equal weight” with a €20.30 price target, pointing to persistent softness and heightened competitive pressure, particularly in the UK market.