Valneva misses revenue estimates, reaffirms guidance; stock jumps

Published 20/11/2025, 11:50

Investing.com -- Valneva reported nine-month revenue that missed analyst expectations but reaffirmed its full-year outlook.

The company’s shares jumped 6% in Paris after the report.

Valneva reported nine-month revenues of 127 million euros and product sales of 119.4 million euros, missing the 132.3 million consensus estimate cited by Kepler Cheuvreux.

Sales from Valneva’s Japanese encephalitis vaccine Ixiaro grew 12.5% to 74.3 million euros over the nine-month period, though the pace weakened sharply in the third quarter as the earlier catch-up effect faded and last year’s base became more demanding.

Dukoral remained stable at 21.5 million euros, while Ixchiq contributed 7.6 million euros year-to-date, with U.S. volumes still constrained by the ongoing licence suspension.

“The quarter was held back by unusually tough comps after last year’s stockout recovery and a normalisation of travel-vaccine demand,” Kepler Cheuvreux analyst Justine Telliez commented.

Operating cash burn improved to 28.4 million euros thanks to a better product mix and lower SG&A.

The company ended September with 143.5 million euros in cash, not yet including the October refinancing with Pharmakon, which enhances financial flexibility ahead of major clinical milestones.

Valneva reiterated full-year 2025 targets, including product sales of 155–170 million euros, total revenues of 165–180 million euros and R&D of 80–90 million euros. Management continues to expect its commercial franchise to be cash-flow positive in 2025.

Telliez said Ixiaro’s nine-month growth “overstates underlying trends” given how far Q3 fell below first-half levels. The analyst also pointed out that ex-U.S. Ixchiq demand remains limited until there is visibility on a regulatory resolution.

Telliez continues to view Lyme disease vaccine as Valneva’s main strategic swing factor.

Pfizer has completed vaccinations in the pivotal VALOR phase III trial for VLA15, the only Lyme disease vaccine candidate in clinical development, with top-line efficacy results expected in the first half of 2026.

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