Volkswagen cuts 2025 forecast after profit falls; shares rebound

Published 25/07/2025, 07:00
Updated 25/07/2025, 12:40
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Volkswagen Group (ETR:VOWG) cut its 2025 financial forecast on Friday after a 33% drop in first-half operating profit and negative automotive cash flow, citing higher U.S. tariffs, restructuring costs and weaker electric vehicle margins. 

Shares reversed early losses of 3% to trade over 1% higher at 07:37 ET (11:37 GMT).

The German automaker now expects 2025 revenue to remain flat, compared with a prior outlook of up to 5% growth. 

Jefferies noted that compares to a market consensus of 0.5% growth. Volkswagen also lowered its expected operating margin to 4%-5%, down from 5.5%-6.5%. 

Jefferies said the lower end assumes no relief from current 27.5% U.S. tariffs and compares to a consensus margin of 4.7%.

Net cash flow in the automotive division is now forecast at €1 billion to €3 billion, down from €2 billion to €5 billion, versus consensus of €1.6 billion. 

Net liquidity guidance was revised to €31 billion-€33 billion, from €34 billion-€37 billion. Consensus stood at €32.9 billion.

Volkswagen reported operating profit of €6.7 billion for the first half, down from €10 billion a year earlier. 

Revenue was stable at €158.4 billion, compared with €158.8 billion. The group operating margin declined to 4.2% from 6.3%. Excluding tariffs and restructuring, the margin was 5.6%.

Costs included €1.3 billion from higher U.S. import tariffs and €700 million in restructuring at Audi, Volkswagen Passenger Cars and software unit Cariad. 

Jefferies estimated second-quarter tariff and restructuring impacts at €1.2 billion and €600 million, respectively, implying underlying operating profit between €5.5 billion and €6.8 billion.

Automotive net cash flow turned negative €1.4 billion, compared with positive €400 million a year ago, reflecting restructuring payments, tariffs and a €900 million investment in Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN).

Jefferies noted second-quarter operating free cash flow of negative €523 million, including the Rivian investment and a €2 billion working capital outflow.

Group vehicle deliveries rose slightly to 4.36 million units from 4.34 million. South America increased 19%, Western Europe 2%, and Central and Eastern Europe 5%. 

Deliveries fell 3% in China and 16% in North America. Western Europe order intake rose 19%, with EV orders up 62%.

The Core brand group posted a 4.8% margin, with Jefferies citing second-quarter margin at 6.3%, up 2.6 points. 

Škoda delivered a record €740 million profit and 8.5% margin. The Progressive (NYSE:PGR) brand group recorded €1.1 billion in profit and a 3.3% margin. Jefferies said Audi’s margin was 3.2%, below a 4.3% consensus.

Porsche sales fell 11% to 135,000 units. Revenue declined 9% to €16.1 billion, and profit dropped to €800 million.

Jefferies reported a second-quarter auto margin of 1.9%, compared to a 3.3% consensus.

Traton revenue fell 7% to €21.2 billion, with profit down 39% to €1.2 billion. Cariad lost €1.2 billion, flat year over year, with a €417 million second-quarter loss. Group Mobility earned €1.8 billion. Financial services EBIT rose to €863 million from €588 million.

Volkswagen cited risks from trade restrictions, emissions rules, and market volatility. The outlook assumes current U.S. tariffs remain or fall to 10%.

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