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Investing.com -- UK private sector wage growth has fallen to 4.4% in annual terms, down from 6% around the turn of the year, strengthening the case for further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England.
The three-month annualized rate of private sector pay growth now sits at 2.4%, suggesting the annual rate could fall below 4% by November, according to analysis from ING.
This wage growth slowdown comes as the UK labor market continues to cool, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.8% and payrolled employee numbers still declining monthly.
The latest jobs report revealed concerning signs of labor market weakness, with Deutsche Bank noting that the single-month jobless rate reached 5.3% in the three months to August—the highest since 2015—as redundancies increased by 113,000 over the same period.
Vacancies dropped to a new multi-year low of 717,000 in the three months to September, while payrolls shrank by 10,000 and jobless claims rose by 25,800.
Public sector pay growth is picking up, but analysts attribute this to significant real-terms increases in government spending in the current fiscal year, which is not currently planned to be repeated next year. The upcoming Autumn Budget, expected to focus on tax hikes, could further strengthen the case for additional Bank of England easing.
While a November rate cut appears unlikely, both ING and Deutsche Bank suggest December 2025 remains a possibility for the next interest rate reduction, with ING forecasting three additional cuts in 2026—more than markets are currently pricing in.