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Thursday’s release of GDP data from Hungary and Poland indicated a return to positive growth for both economies at the end of last year, although forecasts by Capital Economics suggest growth may still fall short of analyst expectations in 2025.
Hungary’s Q4 GDP showed a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 0.4% year-on-year expansion, aligning with consensus predictions.
This positive change comes after the economy experienced contractions in both the second and third quarters of the previous year.
Poland’s annual GDP data revealed a 2.9% growth for the entire year of 2024, a significant improvement from the stagnation seen in 2023 and slightly above the consensus forecast of 2.8%.
While Q4 figures were not specified, estimates based on the annual data suggest an increase from a -0.1% contraction in Q3 to approximately 1.5% growth in the last quarter.
Analysts attribute Poland’s 2024 economic resurgence primarily to robust household spending, bolstered by rapid wage growth and fiscal support measures.
This domestic demand is anticipated to sustain economic stability in both countries over the upcoming quarters.
Despite this domestic strength, Capital Economics expects external demand to remain subdued, particularly due to economic challenges faced by key trading partners like Germany.
As a result, the firm projects Poland’s GDP to grow by 2.8% and Hungary’s by 1.5% in the current year, with both estimates falling below the broader consensus among analysts.
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