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Bank of America (BofA) analysts forecast that the Bank of Mexico, commonly known as Banxico, will likely reduce its policy rate by 50 basis points at the upcoming meeting on March 27. The cut would adjust the rate to 9.00%. BofA anticipates that the decision could be unanimous, but it acknowledges the possibility of a 4-1 vote. They also expect Banxico to maintain its current forward guidance.
The rationale behind BofA’s expectation is based on several economic indicators. These include both headline and core inflation rates trending below 4.0%, and a negative output gap suggesting the economy is not operating at full capacity. Additionally, early data from the first quarter of 2025 indicates that Mexico may be experiencing a technical recession, further justifying a rate cut.
Despite the anticipated reduction, BofA believes that Banxico will halt further cuts before reaching its neutral policy rate and maintain a restrictive monetary stance. This is due to headline inflation remaining over Banxico’s 3.0% target, long-term market inflation expectations also exceeding the target, and the assumption that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not adjust rates this year. Consequently, Banxico is expected to keep its policy restrictive despite the slowing economy.
BofA’s analysts predict that the terminal rate will be set at 8.00%, which is above the neutral rate. This forecast hinges on the current economic deceleration, but BofA also acknowledges that there are risks to their prediction, including the possibility that the terminal rate could be adjusted downward if economic conditions worsen.
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