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Investing.com -- Artificial intelligence has been the “engine of the market’s ascent” in recent years, and UBS believes the trend can continue into 2026, provided capital spending remains robust and companies begin demonstrating returns on their investments.
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In a new report from UBS’s chief investment office, the bank said “powerful trends in capex and accelerating adoption are likely to drive further gains for AI-linked stocks in the year ahead.”
AI’s influence on markets is already clear. UBS noted that IT and communication services companies, many benefiting from AI advances, now make up 36% of the MSCI AC World index, while the top nine U.S. tech stocks have contributed 72% of the Russell 3000’s growth over the past year.
AI investment is having a “growing direct impact on the economy,” with information-processing equipment and software adding 0.8 percentage points to U.S. real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2025.
The investment cycle is said to remain intense. UBS stated that robust AI capex has pushed the Nasdaq up 107% over three years, with semiconductors rising 157%.
The bank expects $571 billion of AI capex in 2026, up from an estimated $423 billion in 2025. UBS projects $4.7 trillion in cumulative global AI capex between 2026 and 2030, driven by demand for agentic AI, physical AI and AI video.
The key question is monetization. UBS believes that the revenue potential is vast, estimating long-term annual AI revenues could reach $1.5 trillion if AI automates one-third of global labour tasks and vendors capture 10% of the value.
For now, monetization is “lagging capex,” but early adopters report “tangible value creation.”
While risks remain, UBS concluded that rising adoption and sustained investment should be “sufficient to push AI-linked stocks even higher in 2026.”