Capital Economics breaks down the latest U.S.-China trade deal

Published 12/06/2025, 10:48
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Investing.com - The economic relationship between the U.S. and China is in "far worse shape" than it was a few months ago despite a trade deal announced earlier this week, Capital Economics have argued.

U.S. President Donald Trump has called the deal struck with Beijing after marathon talks in London this week "great," adding that it has "everything we need."

Along with a framework covering tariff rates, the agreement will also see China lift restrictions on exports of rare earths minerals considered to be crucial in a range of industries. Chinese students will be allowed to access U.S. universities as well.

"We’re very happy with it," Trump said ahead of an event on Wednesday evening. Both the president and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping need to approve the deal.

Still, markets on Wednesday had a relatively tepid reaction to the latest signs of détente in trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies, with analysts noting that the announcement was short of details.

"[W]e shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that the economic relationship is in concrete terms in far worse shape than a few months ago," analysts at Capital Economics led by Mark Williams said in a note to clients.

Any rolling back of non-tariff barriers between the U.S. and China will likely lead to U.S. firms trying to amass stockpiles of rare earths, they added.

However, the anlaysts flagged that the state of the relationship hangs to "such an unusual degree on the judgment" of Trump.

"A breakdown in the relationship is only a Truth Social post away," they said.

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