Capital Economics warns markets may underestimate Trump tariff follow-through

Published 14/07/2025, 13:38
© Reuters

Investing.com -- According to analysts at Capital Economics, the gradual publication of new demands and threats of higher tariff rates against Brazil and Canada “calls into question the widespread assumption” that President Trump will not follow through on most of his tariff threats.

The firm acknowledged in a note on Monday, focused on the U.S. dollar, that Trump continues to ratchet up his tariff threats again, while U.S. interest rate expectations edge higher. 

“As widely expected, the 9th [of] July deadline for the ‘pause’ on U.S. reciprocal tariffs was extended,” wrote Capital Economics. They noted that the new tariff threats are “based on rationales not directly related to economic concerns.”

The firm explained that there is now a renewed focus on negotiations with the EU and China, which carry the most weight in terms of the political impact on the global economy. 

With equities having edged lower and the currencies of impacted countries under some pressure, Capital Economics feels that the “assumption that Trump’s threats are largely empty may be wearing thin.”

Focusing on the FX markets, Capital Economics told investors that “Trump’s threats appear ot have helped the dollar at the margin, rather than hurt it.”

“That suggests that his current approach of singling out smaller countries for escalation, rather than - as on ‘liberation day’ - taking on the whole world at once, is more conducive to dollar strength.”

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