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Investing.com -- Citi analysts maintained their forecast for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), projecting a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut at the upcoming May Monetary Policy Board meeting. Despite recent market movements, Citi’s stance remains unchanged, with expectations set for additional 25bps reductions in the months of August, September, and November, targeting a year-end terminal rate of 3.1%.
Citi’s analysis suggests that the market might be overestimating the pace at which the RBA will implement rate cuts. They argue that a trimmed-mean estimate of 0.6%-0.7% does not alter their perspective on the RBA’s course of action. According to Citi, there is a higher probability of the RBA holding rates steady in May than implementing a more aggressive 50bps reduction.
The firm also anticipates that any rate cut in May would be accompanied by a more cautious or hawkish message from the RBA, particularly if the unemployment rate in Australia holds steady at 4.1% in April. Citi describes the RBA as a "reluctant cutter" and believes that the sell-off following the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report has left the front-end market pricing too richly. Consequently, Citi continues to see value in their pay July Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) position.
In terms of bond market movements, Citi expects further flattening of the 3s10s Australian Commonwealth Government Bond (ACGB) curve. However, they acknowledge that the recent rally in U.S. Treasury (UST) yields introduces risks to their position on ACGB outperformance relative to UST.
Overall, Citi’s outlook for the RBA’s monetary policy remains consistent, with the expectation of a total of 100bps in rate cuts spread throughout the remainder of the year. They note that the risk to their forecast leans towards fewer rate cuts in 2023 rather than more.
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