Intel stock spikes after report of possible US government stake
Investing.com -- The Central Bank of Colombia (BanRep) has decided to keep the policy rate at 9.50%, contrary to market expectations of a rate cut. The market had anticipated a reduction of 22 basis points, with a Bloomberg survey revealing that 24 out of 32 research houses were expecting a 25 basis point cut.
The decision was not unanimous, with five board members voting in favor of maintaining the current rate. One member advocated for a 25 basis point cut, likely Acosta, and another, the Finance Minister, voted for a 50 basis point reduction.
The decision to hold rates steady was justified in a written statement from the bank, citing increased inflationary risks. These include a significant minimum wage increase of 9.5%, higher producer price inflation, increased inflation expectations, and fiscal uncertainty leading to exchange rate volatility. The bank also noted that U.S. policies on migration, trade, and energy are causing a tightening of global financing conditions.
In a press conference, the Finance Minister disclosed that in December, the Superior Council of Fiscal Policy (CONFIS) authorized COP 30tn (1.8% of GDP) of "one-off transactions" despite objections from the independent fiscal council (CARF). These transactions, which are excluded from the calculation of the structural fiscal deficit, were suggested by the Minister to be a reclassification of structural expenditures to mask fiscal slippage in 2024.
Bank of America predicts that from the next rate decision in March, there will be a new majority on the board, with four out of seven members appointed by President Petro. The outgoing members, Steiner and Jaramillo, known for their hawkish stance, will be replaced by Moisa and Giraldo. The Finance Minister describes the incoming members as having views that align with the government, favoring rate cuts.
Bank of America anticipates that BanRep will begin to cut rates in March and reach a terminal rate of 7% by early 2026.
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