Futures edge up; ASML guidance; Beige Book ahead - what’s moving markets

Investing.com - U.S. stock futures tick up ahead of a fresh slate company earnings, as the third-quarter reporting period begins to gather speed. European chip gear giant ASML offers a tepid financial forecast, warning of a "significant" sales decline in China. Markets, on the hunt for new economic indicators during an ongoing government shutdown, will be keeping tabs on the publication of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book.

1. Futures rise

U.S. stock futures pointed higher on Wednesday, with investors gearing up for a slew of corporate earnings and eyeing the outlook for potentially more Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year.

By 02:34 ET (06:34 GMT), the Dow futures contract had risen by 103 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 futures had added 25 points, or 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had risen by 131 points, or 0.5%.

The main averages on Wall Street closed in mixed fashion on Tuesday, largely recovering from losses earlier in the session.

Analysts suggested that the rebound was fueled by mostly upbeat sentiment around a crush of bank earnings and solid figures from firms in other sectors.

Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell also reinforced bets that the central bank will roll out rate reductions at its last two meetings of 2025, following its decision to slash borrowing costs by 25 basis points in September.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer’s remarks in an interview with CNBC helped to assuage some fears over a resurgence in trade tensions between Washington and China. However, President Donald Trump later hit out at Beijing over its perceived lack of soybean purchases, calling it an “economically hostile act.”

2. ASML’s lukewarm outlook

ASML warned of a significant decline in sales from China, threatening to dampen sentiment around quarterly earnings from the semiconductor giant that were otherwise powered by a wave of enthusiasm around artificial intelligence.

The Dutch firm recently became Europe’s largest listed company thanks in large part to heavy demand for its lithography tools, which play a central role in the production of the chips underpinning the AI boom.

CEO Christophe Fouquet said that it was seeing “positive momentum” in investments into AI. A stream of agreements between AI firms and chipmakers have been unveiled in September and October, simultaneously adding to the euphoria around the nascent technology and sparking fears of a bubble reminiscent of the dotcom craze in the late 1990s.

Net bookings, ASML’s most closely monitored financial metric, in the third quarter came in at 5.40 billion euros, topping estimates.

But the group warned of a downturn in sales next year in China, which accounted for almost a third of new tool sales over the first nine months of 2025. This contributed to a guidance for flat or higher sales in 2026 — a lukewarm projection for a business anticipated to benefit heavily from AI.

3. OpenAI makes 5-year plan to meet $1 trillion spending pledges - FT

OpenAI is working on a five-year plan to meet the more than $1 trillion in spending it has pledged towards furthering its AI development, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday.

The AI startup is working on new revenue sources, debt partnerships, and more fundraising as part of the plan, the FT report said, citing multiple people familiar with the matter.

Deals to provide governments and businesses with more bespoke products are also being worked on, the report said.

All of the efforts will be directed towards meeting debt obligations, given that OpenAI is still largely a loss-making business. The company’s capital obligations are far higher than its income -- a trend that has put off some investors, including Microsoft.

OpenAI has also made commitments to take over 26 gigawatts of capacity from Oracle Corporation, Nvidia , Advanced Micro Devices, and Broadcom, which will likely cost well over $1 trillion in the next decade, the FT said.

Recent reports showed OpenAI generated about $4.3 billion in the first half of 2025, and logged a $13.5 billion loss.

4. United Airlines to report

A bevy of companies are now due to report their latest results on Wednesday, opening the floodgates on the third-quarter earnings season.

Among those is United Airlines, which is set to announce its latest figures after the closing bell on Wall Street on Wednesday, with investors keen to see how the carrier expects travel demand to evolve over the rest of the year.

In July, Chicago-based United predicted that earnings in its third quarter to be hit by operational constraints at Newark airport -- a crucial hub for the company and one of the busiest in the United States.

But, United said it expects to see a double-digit jump in business bookings in the quarter compared to the prior three-month period amid a decline in geopolitical and broader economic uncertainty.

Major lenders Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, as well as pharmaceutical firm Abbott Laboratories, will also highlight today’s earnings agenda.

5. Beige Book ahead

With the economic data front largely quiet because of a prolonged U.S. government shutdown, much of the focus will be on the Fed’s Beige Book on Wednesday.

The report, which gathers together anecdotal evidence of the state of the American economy, comes as the shutdown forces policymakers and investors to seek out alternative data sources.

This uncertainty has clouded the prospects for the Fed’s interest rate path this year. The central bank’s drawdown in September was linked to an effort to support a slowing labor market, despite indications of sticky inflation. With data lacking on both employment and price gains, how officials will approach rate decisions over the remainder of 2025 remains a source of some debate.

Still, markets are all but certain that the Fed will slash rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its October 28-29 gathering and again in December, CME’s FedWatch Tool showed.