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This week saw the preliminary approval by President Tokayev of Kazakhstan’s significant tax reform proposal, which aims to alter the nation’s fiscal policy landscape. T
he proposed changes include a significant increase in the Value-Added Tax (VAT) rate from 12% to 20%, a substantial reduction in the VAT payment threshold, and the elimination of social tax and mandatory pension contributions by employers. This latter measure is expected to bring down the total payroll tax from an average of 40% to 30%.
The government estimates that these reforms could generate additional tax revenues of KZT 5-7 trillion ($10-13.5 billion). The VAT increase alone is projected to account for up to KZT 4 trillion ($7.7 billion) of this increase. Furthermore, the government plans to introduce differentiated taxation on bank profits which could yield approximately KZT 1 trillion ($1.9 billion).
Even after accounting for potential revenue losses from the abolition of the social tax, which is expected to be KZT 1.6 trillion ($3.1 billion) in 2024, these measures could slash the National Oil Fund’s transfers by about 50% from the planned KZT 5.3 trillion ($10 billion) in 2025.
President Tokayev also addressed the independence of the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK), suggesting that it should temporarily set aside its autonomy given the current "unusual situation" and focus on the stability of the Kazakhstani tenge (KZT).
While this does not directly impact the NBK’s legal mandate, it underscores the political emphasis on the currency’s stability, which may lead to further measures to support the KZT in the near term.
The proposed tax reforms are expected to initially boost inflation by 7 percentage points in 2026 due to the VAT increase. However, the government anticipates that the inflation rate will align with its 5% target in 2027 as a result of the fiscal consolidation.
The planned reforms are anticipated to lessen inflationary pressures significantly over the next 2-3 years, potentially reducing the need for sterilization of KZT inflows with foreign exchange sales to maintain general currency stability.
The tax reform is part of a new Tax Code that could be fully passed in the first half of 2025, allowing the 2026 budget to be established under the new tax regime.
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