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Investing.com -- The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBRK) has made a hawkish move by increasing the base rate by 125 basis points, taking it to 16.50%. This decision was contrary to the general consensus and expectations that the rate would remain unchanged.
Based on the real rate assumptions drawn from previous NBRK forecasts, the bank has projected new inflation rates. They anticipate a nominal key rate range between 16.50% and 18.25% by the end of 2025.
This range is expected to slightly decrease to between 13.50% and 17.25% by the close of 2026.
ING, a multinational banking corporation, has reacted favorably to this decision. In their statement, they said, "We view the decision to hike positively as it highlights NBRK’s prudent approach to inflationary risks in the current broad economic policy framework. Fiscal performance in 2025 will be a watch factor as a source of additional inflationary risks. We now see no downside to the base rate in 2025 and for most of 2026, which should be positive for private capital flows all things being equal."
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