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Investing.com - A meaningful loss of Federal Reserve independence on setting monetary policy is likely during a time when the central bank has received criticism from President Donald Trump, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank.
Citing a survey performed by the bank last week of 62 investors based mainly in the United States and Europe, the Deutsche analysts said 41% of respondents, whose focus was spread across a range of asset classes, viewed a decline in the Fed’s traditional role free from political influence as "somewhat likely." Some 21% believed this occurrence was "very likely."
Should the Fed lose its independence, the respondents see, relative to their current levels, a drop in interest rates, an uptick in economic activity, unchanged unemployment, higher core inflation, and a rise in the S&P 500 index. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which tends to move inversely to prices, is seen edging higher as well.
"This mix of outcomes entails trade-offs – e.g., stronger growth and higher equities vs. higher inflation and yields - though [...] almost all respondents see Fed independence as highly important to achieving good economic outcomes," the Deutsche analysts said.
"Respondents think that the best expressions in financial markets of a loss of Fed independence would be in higher gold prices, steeper yield curves, higher breakeven inflation rates and a weaker dollar."
However, the median respondent believed that changes in economic or financial conditions or in the composition of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee could have a greater influence than political pressure on how the Fed approaches interest rate decisions in the future.
Trump has frequently badgered the Fed to quickly and aggressively lower interest rates in a bid to help spur economic growth. The Fed, for its part, ratcheted down rates by 25 basis points last month, in what was the first cut to borrowing costs since late 2024.
The central bank, which had long cited an uncertain economic backdrop as a motive behind its decision to leave rates steady for most of this year, argued in September that the drawdown was finally necessary in order to provide support to a slowing labor market.
But the outlook for the rest of the year remains somewhat murky, with many officials still expressing caution around sticky inflation.
Markets are currently all but certain the Fed will slash rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming policy meeting on October 28-29, followed by another in December, CME’s FedWatch Tool has shown.