Morgan Stanley cautious on Mexico, expects wider US spread

Published 11/03/2025, 08:32
Morgan Stanley cautious on Mexico, expects wider US spread

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) provided insights into Mexico’s economic outlook, highlighting several challenges and policy moves the country is facing.

The firm’s analysts noted that Mexico is currently dealing with negative shocks, including the need to implement constitutional changes and the uncertainty surrounding US tariff increases. These factors contribute to a cautious stance on the nation’s economic prospects.

The financial institution also pointed out that Mexico is working to reduce its fiscal deficit to 3.9% of GDP, down from 5.7% the previous year. Morgan Stanley’s own estimates place the deficit at a slightly higher 4.5%.

In terms of monetary policy, the analysts expect Banco de México (Banxico) to continue cutting its policy rate while maintaining it above the neutral level, with an estimated terminal rate of 8.0%.

Economic growth in Mexico is not without its risks, as the analysts foresee potential downside scenarios. Despite these concerns, Morgan Stanley predicts that the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will ultimately be successful.

Finally, the firm’s outlook on currency reflects a bearish bias for the Mexican Peso (MXN) against the US dollar, although not in comparison to the Canadian dollar (CAD). The analysts anticipate a potentially wider spread between Mexico and the US, suggesting caution for investors monitoring rates in the region.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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