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FOREX-Dollar hobbled before payrolls data as trade war doubts grow

Published 01/11/2019, 07:16
Updated 01/11/2019, 07:18
FOREX-Dollar hobbled before payrolls data as trade war doubts grow
US10YT=X
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DXY
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* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

* Non-farm payrolls expected to show slower job growth

* Worries about trade war dent dollar

* Slump in Treasury yields gives dollar bulls pause

By Stanley White

TOKYO, Nov 1 (Reuters) - The dollar traded near a three-week

low versus the yen on Friday before a U.S. employment report

expected to show a slowdown in job creation, highlighting

concerns about the health of the world's largest economy.

The U.S. currency also nursed losses against the euro and

the pound after Bloomberg reported that Chinese officials have

doubts about reaching a comprehensive long-term solution to the

U.S.-Sino trade war.

The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates this week for

the third time this year and indicated that further monetary

easing is unlikely, citing several pockets of strength in the

U.S. economy.

However, the Fed's hawkish tone has failed to put a floor

under the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, which suggests some

investors do not share the central bank's confidence in the

economic outlook due to risks posed by the trade war.

"The Fed is expected to be on hold in December, but the

markets are trying to price in a rate cut next year, because

people doubt that talks to end the trade war will go smoothly,"

said Junichi Ishikawa, senior foreign exchange strategist at IG

Securities in Tokyo.

"If the jobs data prints to the weak side, that would put

even more pressure on the dollar."

The dollar stood at 108.00 yen JPY=EBS on Friday after

hitting a three-week low of 107.89 yen in Asian trading.

Renewed doubts about efforts to resolve the U.S.-China trade

war rattled the greenback and pushed global stock markets lower

on Thursday.

The U.S. currency is on course for a 0.6% decline against

the yen this week, which would be its biggest weekly loss since

Oct. 4. The dollar index .DXY against a basket of six major

currencies fell 0.13% to 97.221, on course for a 0.63% weekly

decline.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday the United

States and China would soon announce a new site where he and

Chinese President Xi Jinping will sign a "Phase One" trade deal

after Chile cancelled a planned summit set for mid-November.

However, Trump's comments on Twitter did little to offset

concerns sparked by the Bloomberg report, which said Chinese

officials will not budge on the thorniest issues in trade talks

with the United States. In the offshore market, the yuan CNH=D3 traded at 7.0450

per dollar, set for a fifth straight week of gains.

Washington and Beijing have been locked in a fierce near

16-months long trade war that has slowed global trade, raised

the risk of recession for some economies and roiled financial

markets.

The U.S. economy is forecast to have created 89,000 new jobs

in October, slower than 136,000 new jobs created in the previous

month, according to a Reuters poll.

The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes US10YT=RR

rose slightly to 1.7015% on Friday but was still close to the

lowest in almost three weeks due to waning hopes for a

resolution to the trade friction.

The pound GBP=D3 rose 0.11% to $1.2960, poised for a 1.0%

weekly gain. Sterling EURGBP=D3 was quoted at 86.17 pence per

euro, headed for a 0.22% rise this week.

Sterling has found support due to the receding risk of

Britain crashing out of the European Union without a deal on

trade and borders.

Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

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