Small business optimism falls as uncertainty rises to near-record levels

Published 14/10/2025, 14:26
Small business optimism falls as uncertainty rises to near-record levels

Investing.com -- Small business optimism declined in September as owners faced rising uncertainty about economic conditions and policy changes.

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index fell 2.0 points to 98.8 in September, marking the first decline in three months. Despite the drop, the index remains above its 52-year average of 98.

The Uncertainty Index jumped 7 points from August to 100, reaching the fourth-highest reading in over 51 years.

"Optimism among small business owners decreased in September," said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. "While most owners evaluate their own business as currently healthy, they are having to manage rising inflationary pressures, slower sales expectations, and ongoing labor market challenges."

Supply chain disruptions worsened significantly, with 64% of small business owners reporting that these issues were affecting their business to some degree, up 10 points from August.

Inflation concerns intensified as 14% of owners cited inflation as their single most important problem, up 3 points from August. The net percentage of owners raising average selling prices rose 3 points to 24%, while 31% plan to increase prices over the next three months, up 5 points.

Business owners’ outlook deteriorated sharply, with the net percentage expecting better business conditions falling 11 points to a net 23%.

Inventory sentiment saw its largest monthly decline in the survey’s history, with the net percentage viewing current inventory stocks as "too low" dropping 7 points to negative 7%.

Labor challenges persisted, with 18% of small business owners citing labor quality as their top problem, tying with taxes as the most important issue. A seasonally adjusted 32% of owners reported unfilled job openings, unchanged from August. Among the 58% trying to hire, 88% reported few or no qualified applicants.

One positive note was actual earnings changes, which increased three points to reach the highest level since December 2021.

Capital expenditure plans remained weak, with 56% of owners reporting capital outlays in the last six months, unchanged from August. Only 21% plan capital outlays in the next six months, a historically low reading.

Borrowing conditions tightened, with 7% of owners reporting their last loan was harder to get than previous attempts, up 4 points and the highest reading of the year. The average rate paid on short-term loans rose to 8.8% in September, up 0.7 points from August.

Despite these challenges, most owners still rated their business health positively, with 11% reporting excellent condition (down 3 points) and 57% reporting good condition (up 3 points).

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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