Traders scale back expectations for September rate cut following Powell comments

Published 30/07/2025, 20:44
Updated 30/07/2025, 20:56
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Investing.com -- Traders have sharply reduced their expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September following today’s FOMC statement, keeping rates steady, and remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

CME 30-Day Fed Fund futures now reflect just a 45.7% probability of a rate cut in September, down from 63.4% prior to the release of the statement.

The declining odds come despite support from two Fed officials, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, who both favored lowering the federal funds rate target range by a quarter percentage point this month.

During his post-meeting press conference, Powell addressed concerns about the inflationary impact of tariffs.

“A reasonable base case is that the effects on inflation could be short lived, reflecting a one-time shift in the price level, but it is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent, and that is a risk to be assessed and managed,” Powell said.  Powell added that services inflation is coming down nicely, while inflation on goods is going higher because of the tariffs.

The reluctance of Powell to cut rates has led to harsh criticism from President Trump, who said he is costing the government billions of dollars in excess debt servicing costs.  It is widely expected that he will be replaced when his term is up next May.

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