Gold prices edge up after sharp losses; US inflation data awaited
Investing.com -- Financial forecasts by UBS anticipate the European Central Bank (ECB) will reduce its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.0% at its meeting scheduled for June 5. This adjustment aligns with what UBS considers a broadly neutral rate. Market expectations already largely reflect this prospective cut, with a 24.3 basis point decrease priced in at the time of the report.
The anticipated decision by the ECB is set to be informed by the new Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections. These projections are expected to indicate a weaker growth outlook for 2026 and lower inflation rates for the years 2025 and 2026.
Nonetheless, the projections are reportedly subject to considerable uncertainty, especially given the potential impact of the United States’ proposed tariffs on the Eurozone. The tariffs, which could see a 50% levy on EU goods, were recently announced by President Trump with a potential start date of July 9.
The UBS report suggests that the ECB’s press conference following the rate decision will likely focus on the macroeconomic outlook, the risks surrounding the ECB’s central scenario, and the bank’s potential contingency plans.
Questions are also anticipated regarding the ECB’s interim strategy review, which is expected to conclude in the summer. The report referenced, titled "ECB strategy review (2025): What to expect," was published on May 2.
In related news, Eurozone inflation data for May is set to be released on June 3, two days prior to the ECB’s meeting. UBS forecasts the inflation rate to be at 2% year-on-year, a slight decrease from the previous 2.2%, with the core inflation rate expected to fall from 2.7% to 2.3%. These figures may play a role in the ECB’s deliberations and subsequent policy decisions.
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