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Analysis from UBS, based on recent opinion polls, suggest a high likelihood that the centre-right CDU/CSU alliance could emerge as the majority party in the upcoming German parliamentary elections.
The Political Probability Monitor indicates a 94% probability of the CDU/CSU winning the most seats and a 93% chance that CDU leader Friedrich Merz could be appointed the next chancellor.
The current projections also point to a potential coalition involving the CDU/CSU with either the SPD or the Greens, with these three parties collectively predicted to secure approximately 69% of the seats in parliament. This figure is adjusted based on the anticipated number of parties that will surpass the electoral threshold to enter parliament.
The formation of a stable government capable of constitutional change may hinge on whether the CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens can attain a two-thirds majority. Achieving this is significant for potential reforms, such as modifying the German debt brake.
The opposition from the AfD against any changes to the debt brake and the Left party and BSW's resistance to altering it to fund increased defense spending are notable obstacles. Without a two-thirds majority, the government might have to rely on invoking the debt brake escape clause with an absolute majority.
A series of TV debates featuring key candidates, including Friedrich Merz, Olaf Scholz, Robert Habeck (Greens), and Alice Weidel (AfD), are scheduled for the 19th, 20th, and 22nd of February, providing voters with last-minute insights into the policies and personalities of those vying for leadership.
On election night, the focus will not only be on the larger parties but also on whether smaller parties like the FDP and BSW can surpass the 5% threshold or secure three direct seats to gain representation in parliament. Exit polls will be released as the polling stations close at 18:00 CET, offering an early indication of the election outcome.
Historically, these exit polls have been reliable in capturing the overall results. The timeline for the release of official results will follow a sequence similar to the previous election, with an intermediate result at 4:30 am, a preliminary result at 6:00 am, and the final result expected by 12:35 pm.
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