Gold prices dip as December rate cut bets wane; economic data in focus
Investing.com - Futures linked to the main U.S. stock averages rise, with traders gearing up for a busy week that will feature the return of official U.S. economic data and key tech sector earnings. A gauge of U.S. employment growth for September is set to be released after it was delayed by a prolonged federal government shutdown, while semiconductor titan Nvidia’s results are likely to influence how investors view the state of the AI boom. Japan’s economy contracts for the first time in six quarters, and gold and oil prices are broadly lower.
1. Futures rise
U.S. stock futures pointed higher on Monday, indicating a positive start to a trading week which will feature a renewed flow of official U.S. economic data and earnings from artificial intelligence-darling Nvidia.
By 02:51 ET (07:52 GMT), the Dow futures contract had gained 88 points, or 0.2%, S&P 500 futures had climbed by 38 points, or 0.6%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had risen by 223 points, or 0.9%.
Bolstering sentiment were signs that U.S. President Donald Trump may be softening his stance on sweeping tariffs. After markets closed on Wall Street on Friday, the White House announced that it would dial back levies on a variety of food products, with Trump in particular stating a need to address affordability challenges.
Prices for some products like beef, fruits and coffee were "a little bit high," Trump acknowledged.
Elsewhere, the U.S. and Switzerland notched a deal to lower duties on exports from the Alpine nation to 15% from 39%, in exchange for a $200 billion investment in the U.S. by the end of 2028.
These moves came as the main U.S. averages logged a mixed close on Friday. Notably, the outperformer was the Nasdaq Composite. Tech stocks rebounded after the index fell to its lowest level in roughly three weeks -- buoying hopes that recent concerns over sky-high, AI-driven valuations in the sector may be fading.
2. U.S. data flow due to restart
Attention now turns back to the economic calendar, which has been largely devoid of fresh official U.S. data for weeks during a record-long federal government shutdown.
That temporary closure came to an end last week, paving the way for new figures on employment and inflation from the world’s largest economy to be released. One of the big publications in the days ahead will be September’s U.S. jobs report, due out on Thursday, although comments from the White House have appeared to suggest that October data could, at least, be truncated.
Crucially, these numbers are likely to figure into how the Federal Reserve approaches its final interest rate decision of the year in December.
The Fed slashed rates at its previous two gatherings, but concerns that the central bank is effectively flying blind without up-to-date economic readings have led to bets that policymakers will keep borrowing costs steady next month.
3. Nvidia to report
Headlining the earnings agenda this week will be much-anticipated quarterly returns from Nvidia, the semiconductor giant whose meteoric rise in recent years has made it a poster child of the AI boom.
The results, scheduled to be unveiled after the close of markets on Wednesday, may be of even more importance to investors than the more-dated U.S. labor market report.
Nvidia’s stock price has soared by roughly 1,000% since the launch of OpenAI’s ChatGPT chatbot in late 2022, making the company the first to surpass $5 trillion in market value and granting its earnings a certain bellwether status that can sway much of a recently fretful mood around AI.
Given frothy stock valuations and a string of circular deals in the tech industry, many of which revolve around Nvidia’s cutting-edge chips, some observers have increasingly worried over the possibility that a bubble may be forming around the AI craze.
Apart from Nvidia, a series of home improvement and big box retailers are set to report this week -- and offer potential insights into the outlook for the crucial holiday shopping season. Home Depot, Target, and Walmart are all due to release their latest earnings.
4. Japan’s economy shrinks
Japan’s economy shrank in the third quarter of 2025, gross domestic product data showed on Monday, weighed down by a tariff-fueled drop in exports, especially from the country’s all-important automotive industry.
GDP contracted 1.8% year-on-year in the September quarter, less than expectations for a drop of 2.5%. But growth turned negative from a 2.3% increase in the prior quarter, which was also revised higher.
It was the first time in six quarters that Japan’s economy shrank, although economists suggested that, because it was not as deep as initially anticipated, this could prove to be a momentary hurdle.
The drop in GDP was widely expected. The Japanese economy has grappled with sticky inflation, sluggish private spending and major exporters facing high U.S. trade tariffs. While Tokyo and Washington have hashed out a trade deal, Japanese firms, particularly domestic car businesses, are still dealing with elevated duties.
Much of the focus is now on new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s plans for more fiscal spending and government stimulus measures.
5. Gold, oil slide
Gold prices fell, extending losses from the prior session as traders steadily pared back expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month.
The yellow metal was pressured by a stronger dollar, while increased risk-aversion, amid bets on delayed rate cuts and heightened economic uncertainty, did little to deter gold’s losses.
Oil prices also slipped lower after Russia’s Novorossiysk port resumed crude loadings, easing immediate fears over supply disruptions.
Both benchmarks had surged more than 2% on Friday after Ukraine launched a high-profile attack on Novorossiysk and a nearby Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, causing damage and halting exports equivalent to roughly 2% of global supply. By Sunday, however, media reports said that tanker-tracking data showed tankers were again loading crude at the port.