U.S. futures dip; Black Friday spending surge - what’s moving markets

Investing.com - U.S. stock futures inch down ahead of the start of trading for December, with investors keeping tabs on a possible fading in risk sentiment underscored by artificial intelligence sector worries. Still, the S&P 500 is up by roughly 16% so far this year, and historically December has been a stronger month for the benchmark index. Black Friday spending online spikes, even as fears swirl around waning U.S. consumer confidence. Elsewhere, oil ticks higher after the OPEC+ producer group backs a plan to hold output steady in the first three months of 2026.

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1. Futures edge down

U.S. stock futures pointed lower on Monday, as the final trading month of the year gets underway with investors eyeing the trajectory of artificial intelligence industry profits and bets on a potential U.S. interest rate reduction later this month.

By 03:16 ET (08:16 GMT), the Dow futures contract had slipped by 234 points, or 0.5%, S&P 500 futures had dropped by 41 points, or 0.6%, and Nasdaq 100 futures had declined by 189 points, or 0.7%.

The main averages on Wall Street rose on Friday, which featured thin volumes in a session shortened by the Thanksgiving holiday.

For the week, all three of major indices gained by more than 3%. The benchmark S&P 500 and blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average also closed out a positive November, although the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ended down 1.51%, echoing recent concerns over the sustainability of frothy tech valuations and soaring -- and often debt-fueled -- spending on AI.

In individual stocks, shares of CME Group ticked up slightly. The company was in the spotlight after an outage caused futures contracts covering everything from stocks to currencies to temporarily come to a halt before the start of the holiday-truncated session.

2. Black Friday consumer spending surges

Facing an uncertain economic environment and a weakening labor market, U.S. consumer confidence at the start of the all-important holiday shopping season is hovering at a seven-month low.

But, harnessing AI-enhanced shopping tools to compare prices and hunt for discounts, Americans’ online spending on Black Friday still surged this year.

U.S. shoppers spent an all-time high $11.8 billion online the day after Thanksgiving, jumping by 9.1% from a year earlier, according to data from Adobe Analytics.

AI-driven traffic to U.S. retail sites grew by more than 800%, Adobe said. Last year, AI tools like Amazon’s Rufus or Walmart’s Sparky offerings had yet to be released.

Against this backdrop, e-commerce sales spiked by 10.4%, figures from Mastercard SpendingPulse showed.

3. Oil rises as OPEC+ holds output steady

Oil prices rose more than 1% on Monday, supported by OPEC+’s reaffirmation to hold output steady during the first quarter, and by renewed supply concerns stemming from geopolitical tensions.

As of 04:12 ET (09:12 GMT), Brent Oil Futures expiring in February rose 1.92% to $63.57 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also jumped 2.12% to $59.76 per barrel.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) on Sunday reiterated its plan to pause production increases through the first quarter of next year, maintaining voluntary cuts of roughly 3.24 million barrels per day.

The group signaled a cautious approach as it confronts uneven demand trends and what it sees as potential oversupply in oil markets next year.

Additional support for crude came from a series of attacks over the weekend on Russian energy infrastructure, which disrupted export operations.

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, a major conduit for Kazakh and Russian crude shipments through the Black Sea, said it had suspended loadings after a naval drone strike caused significant damage to a mooring point at its Novorossiysk terminal.

4. BOJ’s Ueda on possible rate hike

The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda suggested that policymakers would consider the “pros and cons” of raising interest rates at its upcoming December 18–19 meeting.

Ueda hinted as well that there is no clear opposition from new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a notable supporter of easier monetary policy, to raising rates, analysts at ING said.

"This second factor had been crucial for markets, whose basic understanding was that Takaichi was a dovish-leaning influence," they wrote.

Investors interpreted Ueda’s phrasing as hawkish, lifting expectations that the BOJ could deliver its first rate increase since exiting negative rates earlier this year.

The yen was also bolstered by a rise in Japanese government bond yields, as traders priced in a higher probability of tightening.

5. Asian manufacturing sector data in focus

Meanwhile, traders were sifting through a raft of manufacturing sector readings in Asia.

China’s factory activity slipped further into contraction, with both official and private gauges suggesting an eighth straight month of declines.

The data pointed to subdued domestic demand and weak external orders in the world’s second-largest economy due partially to U.S. tariff pressures, extending concerns that China’s recovery remains uneven despite recent policy support.

In Japan, the manufacturing sector shrank for the fifth consecutive month in November, albeit at its lowest rate since August. South Korea’s monthly purchasing managers’ index also contracted again, dragged by soft demand and slowing export momentum.