Weak U.S. futures, payrolls, Powell’s speech - what’s moving markets

Investing.com - U.S. stock futures continued to slump Friday in the wake of the announcement of sweeping trade tariffs by the Trump administration, with investirs awaiting the release of the widely-watched monthly jobs report and a speech by Federal Reserve head Jerome Powell. 

1. Stock futures continue to fall

U.S. stock futures pointed lower Friday, with the selloff following the announcement of President Donald Trump’s tariffs plan set to continue.

At 03:45 ET (07:45 GMT), the S&P 500 futures traded 30 points, or 0.5%, lower Nasdaq 100 futures had fallen by 65 points, or 0.4%, and Dow futures had slipped 255 points, or 0.6%.

The main Wall Street indices suffered the biggest slide for five years on Thursday, the day after Trump announced a baseline tariff rate of 10% on imported goods from all countries, effective from April 5, with most of America’s major trading partners facing far higher levies.

The blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped almost 1,700 points, or 4%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite slumped nearly 6%, while the broad-based S&P 500 fell 4.8%, dropping back into correction territory, down more than 10% from its February all-time high. 

Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are tracking for their worst weekly performances since September 2024 and sixth negative week of the last seven.

Investors are worried that a global trade war will ultimately lead to economic activity being severely crimped.

The odds of a global recession will rise to 60% if President Donald Trump’s tariff plan goes forward as initially presented, according to investment bank JPMorgan, up from the previous likelihood of 40%.

2. Payrolls to see jobs growth slowing

The all-important jobs report for March is due for release later in the session, as investors seek clues concerning the health of the U.S. economy given the growing fears over the impact of Trump’s levies on growth and inflationary pressures.

The U.S. economy is tipped to have added 137,000 roles in March, down from 151,000 in the previous month, and well below the 190,000 monthly average over the past six months.

The unemployment rate is seen equaling February’s mark of 4.1%.

A degree of uncertainty has gripped the labor market following the mass firings of public sector workers to slash federal government spending and given the likely reluctance by businesses to increase hiring amid the tariffs turmoil.

Data released earlier this week showed that U.S. job openings fell in February, while private employers in the U.S. added more roles than anticipated in March, according to the ADP National Employment Report.

3. Powell to speak on economic outlook

Also of major interest will be a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on the economic outlook, set to be delivered later this session.

The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 4.25%-4.50% range at its March meeting, citing the current high economic uncertainty.

The policymakers now appear to be caught between an almost certain spike in consumer prices and the mounting risk of recession as consumers and businesses cut back. 

Fed fund futures are up another 9 basis points for December, basically implying 100 basis points of cuts this year. 

Analysts at Citi see the potential for even more easing if the elevated tariffs persist for at least the next few months, even as this will raise inflation significantly. 

"Ultimately, we expect officials to lean dovishly toward their employment mandate and deliver 125 basis points of rate cuts this year," analysts at Citi said, in a note.

4. Gold set for fifth consecutive weekly gain

Gold prices slipped from record levels Friday, but were still set for their fifth straight weekly gain as the safe haven benefited from the market turmoil generated by the Trump administration’s sweeping trade tariffs.

At 03:55 ET,  spot gold inched 0.2% lower to $3,115.75 per ounce, after having hit a fresh record high of $3,168.04 on Thursday.

Despite the slip lower, market commentator Ed Yardeni expects further gains, seeing the yellow metal reaching $4,000 by the end of the year.

"That may happen sooner if Trump persists with his Reign of Tariffs," he said today.

HSBC also raised its average 2025 and 2026 gold price forecast to $3,015 and $2,915 per ounce respectively, an increase from its previous forecasts of $2,687 and $2,615.

The investment bank said geopolitical risks, including the Ukraine war and Middle East conflicts, along with U.S. foreign policy changes and economic uncertainty, are driving gold prices higher.

5. Oil on course for sharp weekly falls

Oil prices retreated further Friday, and were on track for the worst week in months after the U.S. trade tariffs raised risks of a global recession that could weigh on oil demand.

Both contracts declined more than 6% on Thursday, with Brent on course for its biggest weekly loss in percentage terms since October, and WTI since January.

Adding to the negative sentiment was Thursday’s news that eight members of OPEC+, the group which includes the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, plan to accelerate production increases.

Goldman Sachs has trimmed its oil price projections as a result, and now expects Brent and WTI oil prices to average $69 and $66 per barrel, respectively, in 2025. 

For 2026, the average prices are projected to be $62 for Brent and $59 for WTI.