Wells Fargo lifts U.S. growth outlook, expects two additional Fed rate cuts

Published 08/10/2025, 11:52
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Wells Fargo raised its forecasts for U.S. economic growth and now expects two more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the first half of next year.

In a note on Wednesday, the bank said it has “become modestly more constructive on the outlook for economic growth” and now expects “U.S. real GDP to expand 2.0% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026 on an annual average basis, a bit stronger than our September update.”

Wells Fargo said the upward revision followed “stronger readings on consumer spending.” 

The bank noted that “aggregate personal consumption expenditures [are] growing at an annualized rate of 3.0% in Q3-2025, an accelerated pace from the first half of the year.” 

Growth in business investment, “in part due to robust AI and other high-tech investment,” was cited as another support factor.

However, Wells Fargo cautioned that “the headwinds from elevated capital costs, trade policy changes and increased uncertainty will likely become more evident as the year rounds to a close.”

Inflation “remains above the FOMC’s 2% target,” the bank said, adding that the core PCE deflator rose 2.9% year over year in August. 

“Core inflation of 2.9% year-over-year in Q3 and 3.0% in Q4 seems likely in our view,” Wells Fargo wrote, though it expects “a gradual easing through 2026 and 2027.”

The bank said it expects the Federal Reserve to “look through a temporary uptick in inflation” and deliver “a 25 basis point cut at both the October and December FOMC meetings, with two additional 25 bps rate reductions in the first half of 2026.”

 

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.