(Bloomberg) -- Coronavirus infection rates in the U.K. are slowing, according to government scientists.
The reproduction factor of the virus -- the so-called R rate -- is between 1.0 and 1.2 across the U.K., according to official figures published Friday. That is lower than last week’s estimate of 1.1-1.3, which means the virus is still spreading exponentially but at a slower rate.
England is currently under its second national lockdown, with non-essential shops, pubs and restaurants closed for four weeks until Dec. 2, in order to curb the spread of the virus.
The latest figures offer a glimmer of hope that the most stringent restrictions will be eased for Christmas, in welcome news for shuttered businesses as well as for politicians. Prime Minister Boris Johnson wanted to avoid another lockdown and held out against one until modeling projected the health service would be overwhelmed without action.
The Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (SAGE), which advises the government on pandemic strategy, warned levels of coronavirus remain “very high.” The panel said “significant levels of healthcare demand and mortality will persist until R is reduced to and remains well below 1 for an extended period of time.”
SAGE said the R rate is lowest in the north-west of England, at 0.9-1.1, where some areas such as Manchester and Liverpool were already under tight restrictions due to a surge in cases before the nationwide lockdown was enforced on Nov. 5.
A separate study from the Office for National Statistics on Friday appeared to echo SAGE’s findings. The proportion of people testing positive for coronavirus in England has continued to rise, but more slowly than in the past, the ONS said.