Citi sees limited upside for AUD/JPY after reaching target

Published 08/04/2025, 10:48
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Citi analysts noted that the AUD/JPY currency pair has swiftly achieved the target zone of 85-86 that was previously indicated last week. The rapid attainment of this level has led to a less favorable risk/reward scenario, diminishing the appeal of pursuing further declines in the cross-JPY at the current rates.

Citi's analysts highlighted the historical occurrence of significant risk rallies during bear markets, suggesting the possibility of a tactical bounce in risk sentiment within the current week. The firm noted that while it is uncertain whether this bounce would mark a definitive bottom or merely a temporary reprieve before further lows, the S&P 500 remains at risk of a decline towards the approximate level of 4,700.

The analysts elaborated that, on a tactical basis, a bear market rally within the week would not be unexpected. Such a rally could potentially offer more advantageous positions for re-entering short positions on cross-JPY trades. Additionally, for those adept at market timing, it could present an opportunity to counter some of the extreme movements observed in the previous week.

Citi's commentary comes amid a backdrop of fluctuating global market conditions, with investors closely monitoring various economic indicators and geopolitical developments. The AUD/JPY pair, which is often influenced by shifts in risk sentiment, has been a focal point for traders seeking to navigate the complex currency markets.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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