S&P 500 gains to extend record run, set for positive week
Investing.com - The U.S. dollar edged higher Thursday but remains at low levels, while the euro slipped ahead of the latest policy-setting meeting from the European Central Bank.
At 04:40 ET (08:40 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, gained 0.1% to 97.002, near a two-week low.
The index has lost almost 1.5% over the last week, with the U.S. currency struggling to generate any upside from the news of a U.S.-Japan trade deal as well as talk of an imminent agreement with the European Union.
Dollar due short-term recovery?
“If the greenback is indeed due a short-term recovery (we still think it is), then that will need to be triggered by data rather than tariff news,” said analysts at ING, in a note. “But this week has been quiet on data, and that has seemingly allowed some rebuilding of USD shorts.”
The economic data calendar includes new home sales, S&P Global PMIs and the weekly initial jobless claims.
“Initial claims have been on a five-week downward trend and continuing claims have plateaued since mid-June. With only eight days until the U.S. jobs report, another strong print today can drive nonfarm payrolls expectations a bit higher,” ING added.
“Markets still price in 16bp of easing for September, which is the contract where we see the greatest potential for a hawkish repricing driving some dollar recovery.”
Traders are also awaiting news out of the Federal Reserve, with U.S. President Donald Trump, a vocal critic of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, set to visit the central bank later in the session.
It was not immediately clear whether Trump, who has lambasted Powell repeatedly for not cutting U.S. interest rates more aggressively, would be meeting with the Fed chief.
Euro slips ahead of ECB meeting
In Europe, EUR/USD fell 0.1% to 1.1767, with the single currency close to its highest level in nearly four years ahead of the latest meeting of the European Central Bank.
The ECB is expected to hold rates steady on Thursday after eight consecutive rate cuts, with the policymakers awaiting news of the trade negotiations between the European Commission and the U.S.
“If the ECB is feeling confident that a trade deal is coming, the risks of a dovish surprise are indeed lower. However, the currency discussion remains a wildcard that poses downside risks for the euro,” ING added.
GBP/USD dropped 0.2% to 1.3549, having gained 0.4% in the previous session.
The U.K. government has already signed a trade deal with the Trump administration, while inflation remains elevated, suggesting that the U.K. base interest rate will remain one of the highest in the major economies.
Yen extends gains
Elsewhere, USD/JPY traded 0.2% lower to 146.24, with the yen extending gains for the fourth straight day following the announcement that Washington and Tokyo have struck a broad trade deal that includes a 15% tariff on all imported Japanese goods, down from a previously proposed 25%.
AUD/USD gained 0.2% to 0.6615 and USD/CNY slipped 0.1% to 7.1522, with the Japanese trade deal resulting in wider regional optimism.