Dollar under pressure; September rate cut expectations grow

Published 28/08/2025, 10:26

Investing.com - The U.S. dollar slipped marginally lower Thursday, on the defensive as expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month grew.

At 05:20 ET (09:20 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.1% lower to 98.005, adding to two days of declines.

Dollar on the backfoot

The dollar has been on the backfoot this week following U.S. President Donald Trump’s attempt to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook over alleged mortgage fraud, raising concerns about increased political influence over monetary policy. 

“The Cook issue looks set to be tied up in court for the remainder of the year, with the key point being whether she can continue to vote on the FOMC during this period. Alongside Stephen Miran’s recent appointment to the Fed governing board, 17 September is shaping up to be quite a meeting,” said analysts at ING, in a note.

Expectations of a Fed interest rate cut in September rose after Fed Governor John Williams said in an interview with CNBC on Wednesday that "every meeting is, from my perspective, live."

"Risks are more in balance," he said. "We are going to just have to see how the data play out."

The economic data calendar includes the release of weekly jobless claims as well as quarterly gross domestic product, ahead of the PCE price index on Friday - the Fed’s preferred inflation measure - and the monthly payrolls report a week later.

Traders currently lay around 89% odds of a quarter-point rate cut next month, and have priced in a cumulative 55 basis points of easing by year-end, according to LSEG data.

Euro helped by new car sales  

In Europe, EUR/USD climbed 0.1% to 1.1647, helped by data showing that new car sales in Europe rose 5.9% in July, the best month for more than a year.

Data showed that eurozone consumer confidence slipped slightly this month, but consumers were still prepared to make major purchases in July.

“At the weekend, ECB President Christine Lagarde gave a reasonably upbeat interview to Fox News. She said consumers and businesses were resilient and that whilst growth was not particularly strong, the signs were optimistic,” said ING.

GBP/USD traded 0.1% higher to 1.3504. 

“We still think a structural break above 1.35 is a matter of when rather than if,” said ING.

Calm Asian trading

Elsewhere, USD/JPY dropped 0.1% to 147.34 and USD/CNY gained 0.3% to 7.1378, while Asian currencies traded in tight ranges.

AUD/USD edged 0.2% higher to 0.6515, extending gains after Wednesday’s release of stronger-than-expected inflation data complicated the case for further Reserve Bank of Australia easing.

 

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