Eurozone’s energy dependence may limit EUR/USD upside, ING says

Published 16/06/2025, 11:02
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- The eurozone’s reliance on energy price exports could constrain EUR/USD upside potential, according to a recent analysis by ING. The banking group had previously suggested that moves beyond 1.1600 appeared stretched based on historical misvaluation patterns, even before the Israel-Iran conflict began.

ING’s short-term fair value model currently places the EUR/USD just below 1.110, with movements below 1.1640 potentially pushing the pair beyond the three-standard-deviation upper bound. The analysis indicates that near-term price action will likely be heavily influenced by oil market volatility and USD movements.

The European economic calendar features ZEW survey results and speeches from European Central Bank Governing Council members. Monday’s schedule includes addresses from both hawk Joachim Nagel and dove Piero Cipollone, representing different perspectives within the ECB.

Several other European central banks are preparing for policy decisions this week. The Riksbank on Wednesday and the Swiss National Bank on Thursday are both expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, though the Riksbank decision appears less certain following recent oil price shocks.

The Bank of England and Norges Bank are both anticipated to hold rates steady during their Thursday policy announcements, according to ING’s preview analyses.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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