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FOREX-Dollar bounce falters in Asia as Fed shock fades

Published 20/08/2020, 06:13
© Reuters.
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* Dollar jumped after Fed minutes less dovish than some
expected
* Bounce fails to extend in Asia despite risk-off mood in
equities
* Thai protest movement begins to weigh on baht
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, Aug 20 (Reuters) - The dollar clung to gains on
Thursday, after minutes from last month's U.S. Federal Reserve
meeting gave few clues about whether an even more dovish shift
in its policy framework is possible in the autumn, disappointing
some dollar bears.
A heavily shorted greenback put on its biggest one-day surge
since March after the release, hitting 93.159 against a basket
of currencies =USD , about 1% above Tuesday's two-year trough.
But in the wash up, it couldn't extend the bounce, and other
majors mostly nursed their losses during the Asia session with
little spillover from a sharp sell down in equities. MKTS/GLOB
Exceptions included the Korean won KRW= , which dropped
0.4% along with a tumble on the Kospi .KS11 share index, and
the Thai baht THB= , which hit a three-week low of 31.44 per
dollar as investors started to worry about anti-government
protests. .KS
Speculation has been rife the Fed will adopt an average
inflation target, and seek to push inflation above 2% to make up
for years it has run below, or look to cap government bond
yields as part of a broader policy review. The minutes were vague on the matters and merely said "a
number" of Fed members thought it would be helpful to make a
revised statement on its policy strategy at some point, without
providing details or timing. After hitting an 18-month high of $0.7275 before the
meeting, the Australian dollar AUD=D3 fell back below 72 cents
and last sat at $0.7185. The New Zealand dollar NZD=D3 dropped
almost 1.3% from its intraday high to sit at $0.6567.
The euro - the most stretched of all recent gainers on the
greenback - fell back below $1.19 and last sat at $1.1849
EUR=EBS . The pound GBP=D3 was dumped back to $1.3106 and the
dollar jumped about 0.7% on the yen JPY= to 106.00.
"Traders were hoping (the minutes) would cement a clear
consensus in the Fed's ranks for a series of key changes in the
18 September meeting," said Chris Weston, head of research at
broker Pepperstone in Melbourne.
"(But) there seems little consensus in the Fed collective to
adopt an inflation-targeting regime, which is what so many have
positioned for."

BOUNCE OR BREATHER?
The dollar's rebound pulls it back to more or less flat for
the month so far against a basket of currencies.
But the fact that the bounce didn't carry on in Asia, even
when the stock market mood soured, suggests plenty of investors
reckon the slide that has sent it down by 10% since March has
still got further to run.
Short bets against the world's reserve currency had risen to
their largest since 2011 last week and long bets on the euro
were at a record high. 0#NETUSDFX=
"We mainly view yesterday's movement as the market taking a
breather on dollar weakness," said OCBC Bank strategist Terence
Wu in Singapore.
"The retracement has yet to breach significant technical
levels...we are sceptical about the shelf-life of this bounce."
Commonwealth Bank of Australia shares that view and upped
its forecasts for the Aussie, kiwi and pound this year and now
thinks the euro can hit $1.26 by September 2021.
The Fed minutes also sounded pretty gloomy about the
economic outlook, and will be ringing in investors' ears as they
await the Philadelphia Fed business index at 1230 GMT -
especially following a weak reading from New York on Monday.
For the Fed itself, the focus now shifts to whether more
will be revealed at the Aug. 27-28 virtual Jackson Hole
symposium or at September's meeting.
Elsewhere the Chinese yuan CNY= was steady after China
kept benchmark interest rates steady, as expected. It last
changed hands at 6.9218 per dollar in onshore trade.

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U.S. Dollar Index & CFTC speculative currency positions https://tmsnrt.rs/2Q64Zj7
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